That’s a remark by Steven Kopits.
Determine 1: M2 in billions, seasonally adjusted, on log scale (blue). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED.
- Reject unit root null (intercept) at 10% utilizing ADF: No,
- Reject unit root null (intercept, development) at 10% utilizing ADF: No
- Reject unit root null (intercept) at 10% utilizing DF-Elliott-Rothenberg-Inventory: No
- Reject unit root null (intercept, development) at 10% utilizing DF-Elliot-Rothenberg-Inventory: No
- Reject imply stationary null at 1% utilizing KPSS: Sure
- Reject development stationary null at 1% utilizing KPSS: Sure
If there was a debate of this kind, I missed the conclusion that Mr. Kopits refers to (in addition to the overall consensus of the economics occupation).
Perhaps he meant velocity (M2):
Determine 2: Velocity for M2. Supply: Federal Reserve, BEA by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
- Reject unit root null (intercept) at 10% utilizing ADF: No,
- Reject unit root null (intercept, development) at 10% utilizing ADF: No
- Reject unit root null (intercept) at 10% utilizing DF-Elliott-Rothenberg-Inventory: No
- Reject unit root null (intercept, development) at 10% utilizing DF-Elliot-Rothenberg-Inventory: No
- Reject imply stationary null at 1% utilizing KPSS: Sure
- Reject development stationary null at 1% utilizing KPSS: Sure
