Home Economy “…we had a debate about whether or not M2 was imply reverting or not. The info says it’s.”

“…we had a debate about whether or not M2 was imply reverting or not. The info says it’s.”

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That’s a remark by Steven Kopits.

Determine 1: M2 in billions, seasonally adjusted, on log scale (blue). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED.

  • Reject unit root null (intercept) at 10% utilizing ADF: No,
  • Reject unit root null (intercept, development) at 10% utilizing ADF: No
  • Reject unit root null (intercept) at 10% utilizing DF-Elliott-Rothenberg-Inventory: No
  • Reject unit root null (intercept, development) at 10% utilizing DF-Elliot-Rothenberg-Inventory: No
  • Reject imply stationary null at 1% utilizing KPSS: Sure
  • Reject development stationary null at 1% utilizing KPSS: Sure

If there was a debate of this kind, I missed the conclusion that Mr. Kopits refers to (in addition to the overall consensus of the economics occupation).

Perhaps he meant velocity (M2):

Determine 2: Velocity for M2. Supply: Federal Reserve, BEA by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.

  • Reject unit root null (intercept) at 10% utilizing ADF: No,
  • Reject unit root null (intercept, development) at 10% utilizing ADF: No
  • Reject unit root null (intercept) at 10% utilizing DF-Elliott-Rothenberg-Inventory: No
  • Reject unit root null (intercept, development) at 10% utilizing DF-Elliot-Rothenberg-Inventory: No
  • Reject imply stationary null at 1% utilizing KPSS: Sure
  • Reject development stationary null at 1% utilizing KPSS: Sure

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