From FRED, a maturity matched unfold (in addition to 30 yr -10 yr Trsy).
Supply: Freddie Mac, Treasury by way of FRED. Information are weekly averages of day by day charges. [added 30yr-10yr spread 10pm]
And right here’s an replace on actual (ex ante) mortgage charges.
Determine 1: 15 12 months mortgage minus 15 12 months anticipated inflation (blue), 15 12 months mortgage minus 10 12 months SPF anticipated inflation (inexperienced +), 30 12 months mortgage minus 30 12 months anticipated inflation (crimson), all in %. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: Fannie Mae by way of FRED, Cleveland Fed, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Skilled Forecasters (SPF), NBER, and creator’s calculations.