With the discharge of the January 2023 Employment State of affairs launch incorporating benchmark revisions we’ve got the next image of enterprise cycle indicators adopted by the NBER Enterprise Cycle Courting Committee, together with IHS Markit/SP International month-to-month GDP (launched on Wednesday):

Determine 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (darkish blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (pink), private earnings excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (mild blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Q3 Supply: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, by way of FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (2/1/2023 launch), and creator’s calculations.

Whereas one needs to be cautious (as all the time, however notably when new inhabitants controls are integrated) with the family survey employment collection (see this put up), I feel it’s laborious to say that the financial system has taken a determined downturn in December/January.