Compiling a bunch of labor market knowledge, we have now the next image of the non-public nonfarm labor sector, which appears to run counter to the argument final made a month in the past {that a} recession occurred in 2022H1.

Determine 1: Non-public nonfarm payroll employment from January 2023 CES launch incorporating benchmark revisions (blue), from December 2022 CES launch (sky blue), ADP (pink), CES mixture weekly hours for manufacturing and nonsupervisory employees (gentle inexperienced), QCEW non-public coated employees, seasonally adjusted utilizing log remodeled Census X-13 (purple), Philadelphia Fed preliminary benchmark minus reported authorities employment (tan squares), Philadelphia Fed coincident index (chartreuse), all seasonally adjusted, in logs 2022M12=0. A hypothesized recession shaded gentle grey. Supply: BLS (varied) by way of FRED, BLS QCEW, Philadelphia Fed by way of FRED, and writer’s calculations.

Observe: January 2023 CES non-public NFP incorporates benchmark revision to knowledge incorporating March 2023 QCEW knowledge, and new seasonal components. QCEW is an census which has virtually full protection, reported as much as June 2022 (however shall be revised), however must be seasonally adjusted to make it similar to the opposite collection. The combination weekly hours variable is not unbiased supply from the opposite CES survey knowledge primarily based estimates — it can in precept equal employment instances common weekly hours. The ADP collection relies on utterly totally different knowledge than the BLS collection. The Philadelphia Fed has a benchmarking course of which accesses a number of the BLS knowledge however not all, to be able to make a extra well timed estimate. Lastly the Philadelphia Fed coincident index makes use of the Inventory-Watson dynamic issue method to utilized to primarily labor market knowledge (together with wage and wage disbursements) to deduce the extent of financial exercise.