Lagos and Abuja, Nigeria – On February 25, Nigerians will go to the polls to elect President Muhammadu Buhari’s substitute as he’s serving out the second of his constitutionally permitted two four-year phrases.

Eighteen candidates are jostling to succeed him as chief of Africa’s greatest financial system.

High contenders embrace Bola Tinubu, a two-term former governor of Lagos and a significant stalwart of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) social gathering in addition to the Peoples Democratic Celebration’s (PDP) Atiku Abubakar, a former vice chairman who’s gunning for the place a file sixth time.

Additionally within the race are the Labour Celebration’s (LP) Peter Obi, a two-time former governor of Anambra, and Rabiu Kwankwaso, ex-defence minister and former governor of the northern hub Kano, on the ticket of the New Nigeria Individuals’s Celebration (NNPP).

Who’re the primary candidates?

Atiku Abubakar

The PDP stays Nigeria’s key opposition and Abubakar, a veteran who’s on his sixth try to be president, is hoping to clinch the presidency and return the social gathering, which was on the helm of affairs from 1999 to 2015, to energy.

He has hinged his marketing campaign on unifying what stays a divided nation and lifting Nigeria’s financial system, which has suffered two recessions in 4 years, out of the doldrums.

In Nigeria, which is break up virtually evenly between Christians and Muslims, there’s a gentlemanly settlement between the primary events to share energy between north and south, and Christians and Muslims. The outgoing Buhari is a northern Muslim.

Abubakar, like Buhari, is a northern Muslim – and ethnic Fulani – from the northeast. He has chosen Ifeanyi Okowa, the outgoing governor of Delta State within the south and Christian, as his operating mate.

Bola Tinubu

Tinubu and Atiku, former political and enterprise associates, have been among the many founding fathers of the APC however sq. up on Saturday on completely different sides, with every hoping to tug one over the opposite.

The previous, a two-term governor of Lagos, Nigeria’s financial capital, is credited with elevating the state’s income, and supporters say he’ll replicate his success on the nationwide stage.

He has courted controversy by doing what was thought of unthinkable for greater than three a long time, choosing Kashim Shettima, ex-governor of Borno, [as his running mate?]. Tinubu and Shettima are each Muslims, from the southwest and northeast, respectively.

Forward of Saturday’s vote, they’ve argued that competency overrules faith.

Peter Obi

The previous governor of the southeastern state of Anambra, whose emergence and powerful displaying to this point has successfully disrupted the standard two-horse race, can be being projected as a shock winner of the vote.

A number of polls have predicted a win for the Labour Celebration and Obi, who has a big following amongst Nigerian youths who’re disenchanted with governance in Africa’s largest financial system. He was on the PDP ticket alongside Abubakar in 2019.

Obi, a rich capitalist famed for his frugality and overseeing an infrastructure drive throughout his time as governor is operating with Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, a former senator from the northwestern state of Kaduna.

Rabiu Kwankwaso

Seen as a wildcard within the race, Kwankwaso comes with sufficient expertise to match the opposite frontrunners. A former two-time governor of Kano and defence minister, he has served within the two homes of parliament.

He’s immensely standard among the many youth in his residence area for his welfarist politics. One huge achievement was a major scholarship scheme that benefitted 1000’s of scholars from low-income households in Kano, beforehand identified for its excessive numbers of the almajirai, out-of-school youngster beggars.

Kwankwaso is operating alongside Isaac Idahosa, a bishop within the Pentecostal Christian denomination, who hails from Edo State within the south.

What are the important thing points on this election?

Buhari got here to energy promising to repair the financial system, in addition to tackling corruption and insecurity. However his presidency has been so underwhelming that even Tinubu, the APC’s nationwide chief, has repeatedly dissociated himself from the failings of the federal government.

The financial system has endured two recessions within the final 5 years, and the naira has plummeted to one-third of its worth in that point. There’s additionally insecurity, particularly within the northeast, northwest and southeast, the place a number of armed teams maintain grievances towards the state and proceed to conduct frequent rounds of killings and kidnappings.

The present marketing campaign interval has targeted on these identical points.

Are there any safety considerations?

Along with insecurity in elements of the nation, there have been assaults on a lot of state workplaces of the Impartial Nationwide Electoral Fee (INEC).

Whereas there’s a long-running sample of violence round Nigeria’s normally keenly contested elections, consultants say the brand new wave comes with precision and class.

Nevertheless, INEC has stated it’s not contemplating suspending the elections.

What number of elections are there?

The election cycle consists of elections for governorships and members of parliament on the federal and state ranges.

• Elections might be held in all 109 senatorial districts and 360 constituencies in Nigeria’s bicameral federal legislature on February 25, the identical day because the presidential election.
• Two weeks later, 28 of the nation’s 36 states maintain the governorship and state parliament elections in March 2023.

The governing social gathering enjoys a wide-margin majority within the legislature.

• Within the Senate, the APC has 66 seats, whereas the PDP, the primary opposition social gathering, holds 38 seats. The remainder are distributed amongst different fringe events, besides for 3 vacant seats.
• Within the Home of Representatives, the APC controls 227 seats, with PDP having 121. One seat is vacant, whereas 11 different seats are shared amongst 5 smaller events.

How will voting be performed?

The upcoming vote can have extra know-how options within the electoral course of than in earlier elections.

• Parliamentary debates a few new electoral legislation ended final yr when President Buhari ultimately signed a invoice to that impact.
• Probably the most notable enchancment is the authorized backing for the electoral fee to make use of confirm and transmit outcomes electronically. The Impartial Nationwide Electoral Fee (INEC) has launched the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) to accredit voters utilizing biometrics, and add outcomes.
• BVAS was test-run in an off-cycle election final yr.

Right here is how voting will occur:

• Voters go to the assigned polling cubicles because the polls open for voters’ accreditation.
• Normally, votes are tallied within the presence of events’ brokers and voters after voting has ended. The outcomes are then transferred manually to a coalition centre, which has beforehand left the method prone to logistical challenges and in some instances, malpractice.
• In current elections, the transmission of outcomes has been performed each manually and electronically. This time, issues turn into much more clear: outcomes from the polling models are scanned and uploaded to an online portal accessible by registered members of the general public.
• Nonetheless, the handbook technique stays the legally authorized technique of transmission in accordance with the Electoral Act. Festus Okoye, chairman of INEC’s Info and Voter Training Committee, has stated the digital outcomes will solely be consulted within the case of disputes.

How are winners declared?

Within the presidential election:

• Past profitable a easy majority, the victorious candidate additionally has to have at the very least 25 % of the votes forged in at the very least 24 of the nation’s 36 states.
• If no candidate meets these standards, a run-off might be carried out inside 21 days, with solely two candidates allowed to take part: the one with the very best variety of votes in complete and the candidate who garnered the required 25 % votes in additional states than some other candidate.
• If there are two candidates who meet the second criterion, the candidate with the very best vote tally might be picked to run towards the candidate with nearly all of the votes within the first spherical of voting.
• Basically, second place within the first voting spherical doesn’t assure a spot within the run-off.
• The election could be cancelled if extensive malpractice is recorded. On this case, a rerun might be ordered as an alternative of a run-off.

In governorship and state parliament elections:

• The winner should get the very best variety of votes and 25 % of the votes forged in two-thirds of the state’s native authorities areas.

Plugging a loophole

• The brand new laws has resolved a authorized loophole that beforehand existed. In response to Part 34 of the Electoral Act, if a candidate dies earlier than the polls open, INEC will droop the election for 14 days for the affected social gathering to appoint a brand new candidate.
• If the incident occurs after polls have opened however no winner has been declared, INEC can delay the election as much as 21 days.
• On this case, whether it is an government position, the operating mate takes over the ticket and the beneficiary picks their operating mate.
• Within the case of a legislative position, the social gathering has 14 days to appoint a brand new candidate.
• If the president-elect dies earlier than being sworn in, the vice president-elect might be sworn in as an alternative and the brand new president-elect will nominate a brand new vice chairman which needs to be authorized by a plenary sitting of the Nationwide Meeting.

Ideology barometer

In elements of Africa, personality-driven politics and patronage tradition are nonetheless dominant, so ideology politics just isn’t as entrenched on the continent because it was below army regimes.

Political actors are regularly crossing social gathering divides and altering their stance on nationwide points relying on the stage of their profession and different variables in an electoral cycle.

Beneath is an approximate illustration of their ideological standing – economically and culturally.

When will we all know the outcomes?

The outcomes of the elections are normally introduced inside three to 5 days after the elections.