12 months-on-year 2022 is -2.1%.

In “Russia’s financial contraction final yr mitigated by authorities spending”, Bofit remarks on the y/y determine:

Wanting once more to the GDP by finish use figures, personal consumption contracted final yr by 1.8 %, whereas public consumption rose by 2.8 %. The contraction in personal consumption displays the decline in actual incomes (down by 1 % y-o-y). Then again, the contraction in retail gross sales (down by 6.7 %) means that the decline ought to have been extra pronounced. We count on a few of this confusion to resolve with the discharge of the 4Q22 figures. Final yr’s nominal progress in public spending (over 20 % in accordance with preliminary figures) was exceptionally excessive. It implies that public spending elevated by practically 10 % in actual phrases. Federal price range spending was up by 25 % y-o-y. Many of the elevated government-sector spending confirmed up in public consumption and public funding.

In different phrases, within the absence of considerable improve in authorities spending, Russian GDP would’ve fallen much more.

I do marvel concerning the reliability of Rosstat numbers (studying between the strains, I think Bofit would possibly as effectively).

Rosstat’s preliminary estimates of GDP by finish use are tough to interpret. Figures on the amount of complete exports and imports are usually not launched, and numbers inferred from different parts indicate about zero internet exports final yr. That estimate doesn’t comport with obtainable info on the worth of overseas commerce. Preliminary balance-of-payments figures point out that the worth of complete imports contracted by 9 % y-o-y, whereas the worth of complete exports grew by 14 %. Utilizing mirror statistics of Russia’s fundamental buying and selling companions, the worth of Russian items imports fell final yr by 23 %, whereas the worth of products exports rose by 23 %.

The graph beneath presents a number of the competing forecasts (OECD is from November, World Financial institution from early January, the IMF from end-January).

Supply: European Council.

As of at present, the IMF was closest, though with information revisions coming, this will change.