With industrial manufacturing for February, we’ve the next image of key indicators adopted by the NBER BCDC, plus S&P Market Intelligence month-to-month GDP.

Determine 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (darkish blue), Bloomberg consensus of three/17 (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (crimson), private earnings excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (gentle blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Q3 Supply: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2022Q4 2nd launch by way of FRED, S&P International/IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (3/1/2023 launch), and writer’s calculations.

Weekly Financial Indicators (Lewis-Mertens-Inventory) for knowledge accessible by March 11 signifies 0.96% for y/y progress. GDPNow as of yesterday signifies Q1 progress of three.2% q/q SAAR, whereas S&P Market Intelligence/previously IHS Markit has raised its monitoring estimate to 0.6% (q/q SAAR), up from -0.5% a month in the past.