Home Economy 2:00PM Water Cooler 2/3/2023 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 2/3/2023 | bare capitalism

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Hen Music of the Day

Plain-tailed Warbling Finch, Huascarán–Laguna Llanganuco, Ancash, Peru. “From a chicken in patchy elfin forest close to treeline. Whereas singing this chicken was transferring between the tallest bushes round and sitting close to the highest.”

“New analysis turns what we learn about chicken window strikes inside-out” [William & Mary College]. “New analysis from William & Mary revealed in PeerJ Life & Atmosphere reveals that decals supposed to cut back incidents of chicken window strikes—one of many largest human-made causes of chicken mortality— are solely efficient if decals are positioned on the skin of the window. Researchers discovered that the patterns on the movies and decals positioned on the interior floor of home windows don’t cut back collision as a result of they will not be sufficiently seen to birds.”

* * *

Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the biggest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to assume; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels.” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

Copy editors rule:

2024

“Buttigieg, two years into Biden’s Cupboard, ‘not planning on going anyplace’” [Politico]. • Effectively, he acquired proper. He’s not going anyplace.

“Hunter Biden Claims His Laptop computer” [Wall Street Journal]. “Hunter Biden did some reckless issues, is sad individuals discovered, and so is now doing one thing equally reckless. Oh, and by the way in which, that laptop computer actually is his. That’s the information out of a batch of letters despatched this week by Hunter’s attorneys. They’re demanding federal and state prosecutors and the Inner Income Service launch investigations into these concerned with distributing the contents of ‘Mr. Biden’s information’ from his notorious laptop computer. The Washington Submit amusingly framed this as a Hunter-gets-“aggressive”-with-his-critics story, relegating the actual information to the twentieth paragraph: ‘In submitting the criticism, nonetheless, Biden’s attorneys appear to be conceding that a number of the knowledge that has been made public is his non-public data.’ Oh? The complaints are in reality a unprecedented admission that Hunter—and his father, President Joe Biden—have misled the nation for years.”

“2024 Home Race Scores: One other Aggressive Battle for Management” (paywalled) [Cook Political Report]. “Home Republicans enter the 2024 cycle with an infamously skinny 222-213 majority and plenty of questions on why they didn’t carry out higher in 2022. However they’ve historical past on their facet: regardless of the Home flipping partisan management 5 occasions since 1994, it hasn’t flipped in a presidential cycle since 1952 and hasn’t flipped to the occasion occupying the White Home since 1948, when Harry Truman barnstormed towards a Republican ‘do nothing Congress.’ Nonetheless, with 18 Republicans sitting in districts carried by President Biden in 2020 and simply 5 Democrats sitting in districts carried by Donald Trump, there are greater than sufficient weak GOP seats on the desk to maintain the Home in play for Democrats. The latest precedents for this cycle is perhaps 1996 and 2012, when Presidents Clinton and Obama confronted voters two years after the GOP retook the Home. Regardless of a authorities shutdown in 1995 and a debt ceiling showdown in 2011, voters opted to protect a divided authorities — with barely diminished GOP Home majorities.”

“Do Individuals have a good or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump?” [FiveThirtyEight]. -15.8%. However then, have you ever seen the opposite guys?

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, plainly persons are truly studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I must try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, in reality, a tough downside. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Word, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

Oh noes!

This time I believed I’d rely the occasions the phrases “member” or “membership” is used. I acquired twelve. Did I miss any? Junk mail experts: Isn’t this just a little extreme? Even just a little determined? Who precisely do they hope to influence? Any individual fairly aged and weak?

How did I miss this:

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Why they condemned socialism” [Carl Beijer]. “The rationale our ruling class singles out socialism for condemnation is that they’re particularly afraid of the socialist agenda. They aren’t fearful about ‘progressives’ as a result of they know that’s code for ‘liberals and socialists who gained’t make socialism a precedence.’ They aren’t fearful about ‘populists’ as a result of they know that’s code for ‘edgy centrists who need customary centrist reforms.’ However socialism terrifies the ruling class, as a result of attempt as they must redefine it, they nonetheless haven’t dissociated it from its core agenda. Socialists need nationalization, socialists need employee management of the technique of manufacturing, socialists need the abolition of personal property, socialists need the decommodification of requirements, and these are all issues that the ruling class completely doesn’t need. Make imprecise calls for about ‘structural change’ or ‘draining the swamp’ they usually can work with it; hell, most of our flesh pressers run for workplace with slogans like this. However make the precise calls for that socialists make and all they will say is ‘hell no.’” • And naturally:

Extra on the emergence and defenestration of “the general public” (I imagine I butchered this thread yesterday, so right here it’s once more.)

And:

Mass an infection with out mitigation is bipartisan:

Every to the opposite: “We couldn’t have performed it with out you!”

“Rethinking COVID hegemony” [Croakey Health Media]. I’m going to cite this effective abstract first:

Our governments and mainstream media have persuaded Australians [and the Anglosphere] to simply accept growing morbidity, mortality, and the erosion of our public well being techniques utilizing 4 key methods. First, by adopting and selling myths concerning the virus which downplay its severity – “it’s delicate”, “it’s identical to the flu”, “we’re all going to get COVID” and, extra lately, “the pandemic is over”. As such, we understand the pandemic as much less dangerous and any protecting measure as an overreaction. Second, by suppressing COVID-related statistics and different data, as for instance with deliberate under-testing of suspected circumstances, the transfer from each day to weekly bulletins of circumstances and deaths or, because the ABC’s Casey Briggs lately recognized, by suppressing government-commissioned COVID analysis, forecasts, and modelling. Third, by adapting pre-existing beliefs or public opinion, equivalent to utilizing the concept of “pandemic fatigue” to take away mandated protections. And lastly, by prioritising a hyper-individualistic discourse over a collective strategy that champions shared accountability, as for instance with the mantra of “private accountability” and the neoliberal beliefs of rugged individualism and small authorities on which this relies, shifting blame from the state to the citizen.

Plenty of good methods to shift the framing… If they’re ever adopted by the powers-that-be, who’re doing very properly, thanks.

#COVID19

Lambert right here: I’m however a humble tapewatcher, however not like Eric Topol, I’m not calling a surge, as a result of the final peak was Biden’s Omicron debacle, and after an Everest like that, what’s left? Topol’s view is the institution view: Hospital-centric. Mine is infection-centric. I don’t see the common acceleration or doubling in circumstances that I might anticipate to see based mostly on previous surges.

I’m calling a “One thing Terrible.” It’s gonna be unhealthy, in some new means, and we don’t understand how, but (however see right here for immune system dysregulation, which is trying fairly terrible).

Lambert right here: Appears to be like like “leveling off to a excessive plateau” throughout the board. Keep secure on the market!

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• I’m lovin’ it:


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• Covid targets:

If ifs and buts had been sweet and nuts, day-after-day could be Christmas. If Osterholm’s mom had wheels, she’d be a teacart. Covid doesn’t care about Osterholm’s targets ffs! (Oh, and protecting custody for “defending older populations” is a euphemism for doing nothing about shared air. Which schoolchildren breathe. And the immunocompromised, no matter age. I’ve at all times considered Osterholm as one of many higher ones — at the least he isn’t recommending dying at 75, like Emanuel — however right here he appears to have fully misplaced his thoughts. On Meet the Press.

* * *

• Elites shield themselves. They don’t wish to shield you, they usually don’t need you to guard your self both:

See additionally Davos and Newton, MA.

* * *

• From Florence Nightingale’s Notes on Nursing:

The IC/ID goons appear to have brain-wiped themselves on the significance of air flow….

• “Get pleasure from Clear Air Whereas You Drive with the Mini-Mini Field” [Jim Rosenthal, Tex-Air Filters]. “The air you breathe in your automotive or truck is probably a number of the worst you’ll encounter each day. The comparatively small cabin quantity and proximity of the driving force and different passengers make for one of many highest threat environments for the transmission of an airborne illness. Opening home windows is at all times an amazing possibility, however there are occasions when that isn’t attainable. Plus you herald a lot of allergens and different airborne particles. There’s a easy, low-cost answer – Mini-Mini Corsi-Rosenthal Field. For $40 to $50 and quarter-hour of your time you possibly can dramatically decrease these probably harmful indoor particles.” • Rosenthal’s tweet was simply two days in the past. And listed here are instructions!

* * *

• Maskstravaganza: “I’m a health care provider and I don’t like carrying masks at work. Does that make me egocentric?” [Guardian]. No. It makes you harmful. “As a frontline healthcare employee, I’m towards the continuing requirement for mask-wearing in all scientific areas, for the straightforward motive that there seems to be no idea of when it can finish.” • Exchange “mask-wearing” with “hand-washing,” and, properly, a second opinion: It makes you silly, too.

• Maskstravaganza: “EXCLUSIVE: Unattractive persons are MORE prone to maintain carrying face masks in post-Covid period, examine suggests” [Mail Online]. “They concluded that younger and middle-aged Individuals who view themselves as engaging ‘imagine carrying a masks hinders the alternatives to ship a good impression to others’.” • However, individuals who don’t view themselves as engaging purchase into the ‘masks attractiveness perception’ — that face coverings truly improve their seems to be.” • Then once more, maybe the gorgeous individuals — hear me out — are ugly on the within. Additionally [hits Caps Lock] “MASKS ARE NOT FACE COVERINGS BECAUSE THEY DO NOT COVER THE EYES.”

• Maskstravaganza: I don’t learn about this:

After all, it’s ridiculous this man even has to place collectively a equipment. (I did verify the Apple app retailer, and there appear to be masks match apps — however just for sleep apnea masks.)

* * *

• Professionals aren’t supposed to surrender. However on Covid, the (hegemonic) PMC have led the way in which:


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* * *

Case Knowledge

NOT UPDATED BioBot wastewater knowledge from January 30:

For now, I’m going to make use of this nationwide wastewater knowledge as the most effective proxy for case knowledge (ignoring the scientific case knowledge portion of this chart, which in my opinion “goes unhealthy” after March 2022, for causes as but unexplained). No less than we will spot traits, and examine present ranges to equal previous ranges.

Transmission

Right here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to group transmission (the “pink map,” which is the map CDC desires solely hospitals to take a look at, not you.) The map is alleged to replace Monday-Friday by 8 pm:

The earlier map:

NOTE: I shall most definitely not be utilizing the CDC’s new “Group Stage” metric. As a result of CDC has mixed a number one indicator (circumstances) with a lagging one (hospitalization) their new metric is a poor warning signal of a surge, and a poor option to assess private threat. As well as, Covid is a illness you don’t wish to get. Even in case you are not hospitalized, you possibly can endure from Lengthy Covid, vascular points, and neurological points. That the “inexperienced map” (which Topol calls a “capitulation” and a “deception”) continues to be up and being taken significantly verges on the prison.

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s check positivity tracker, revealed February 3:

0.0%. Flat (nonetheless at a excessive plateau, equal to earlier peaks).

Wastewater

Wastewater knowledge (CDC), January 30:

Once more, what the [family blog] is the [family blogging] use of a nationwide wastewater map the place practically all the gathering websites are [family blogging] greyed out?

January 29:

And MWRA knowledge, January 31:

Appears to be like to me like New England’s regional surge is winding down. No bump from the scholars returning. Readers?

• “The Murky Ethics of Wastewater Surveillance” [Science History Institute]. “Testing wastewater is cheaper and invasive than swabbing hundreds of scholars’ noses and analyzing all these samples individually. It can be performed virtually repeatedly. As of late 2020 at the least 5 dozen schools had arrange sewage-testing packages…. A whole bunch of native governments and sewer authorities additionally embraced testing, and the Facilities for Illness Management created a Nationwide Wastewater Surveillance System to gather and publish knowledge on COVID-19 ranges throughout the nation. The company is now planning to develop this system to watch influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, foodborne diseases, monkeypox, and the infectious fungus Candida auris…. Sewage surveillance has seen unprecedented development in a really brief interval. The sphere is present process a fast transformation from a ‘fringe science,’ within the phrases of 1 researcher, to a mainstay of public well being and a multibillion-dollar trade…. WBE is nearly unregulated, leaving it unclear what rights individuals have over their sewage and the way others use it. May landlords evict tenants whose sewer traces check optimistic for illicit medicine? May corporations coerce employees recognized as drug customers to rat out their colleagues? Wastewater evaluation is a strong instrument for safeguarding public well being. However a vocal group of scientists, authorized analysts, and privateness consultants warn towards permitting it to quietly turn into ubiquitous with out enough oversight, a lot as different surveillance applied sciences, equivalent to facial recognition and Web monitoring, have performed or threaten to do. They are saying it’s important that governments set up pointers on avoiding pointless harms, guaranteeing acceptable use of knowledge, and consulting with affected communities.” • Honest sufficient. So long as we’re not silly about it.

Variants

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how gradual the variant knowledge is. Does no one within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and all people will get the outcomes from them? [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk]. UPDATE Sure. See NC right here on Pango. Each Friday, a stately, tutorial tempo completely incompatible with defending your self towards a variant exhibiting doubling habits.

Variant knowledge, nationwide (Walgreens), January 23:

Lambert right here: XBB overtakes BQ. CH not transferring too quick, reassuring, as a result of a Tweet in Hyperlinks, January 11 from GM drew consideration to it (“shows such a excessive relative development benefit”) and in Water Cooler, January 18, from Nature: “CH.1.1 and CA.3.1 variants had been extremely proof against each monovalent and bivalent mRNA vaccinations.”

Lambert right here: Wierdly, the display screen shot about has been changed in the present day by knowledge from “10/7/2022.” (It’s clearly not present knowledge; BQ.1* and XBB don’t dominate.

Variant knowledge, nationwide (CDC), January 14 (Weighted Estimates Solely*):

BQ.1* takes first place. XBB arising quick. (For BQ.1/XBB and vaccine escape, see right here.) CH.* now seems, every week after Walgreens. Right here is Area 2, the Northeast:

CH.1* seems, however barely beneath the nationwide common. XBB completely dominates, making clear that Area 2 (New England) varies enormously from the nationwide common.

Listed below are all of the areas, in a collection of uncaptioned, legend-free and complicated pie charts:

It virtually seems to be like, with respect to variants at the least, there a number of pandemics, not one. The Northeast, the place XBB (blue) dominates, and the opposite areas, with totally different proportions of different variants, however XBB not dominating. Odd. (Sure, I do know the colours are the identical as on the bar chart above. Nevertheless, there are two charts, one bar, one pie, and on a laptop computer one can’t see each at similar time. Simply one other instance of CDC blithering on the stage of the smallest element.)

NOTE * CDC used to have a “Nowcast Off” radio button, which I used due to my unhealthy expertise with CDC fashions like Nowcast. CDC explains (I believe) the change within the following notice:

Weighted estimates (supplied for all weeks besides the newest three weeks) are variant proportions which might be based mostly on empirical (noticed) genomic sequencing knowledge. These estimates are usually not obtainable for the newest weeks due to the time it takes to generate the unweighted knowledge, together with pattern assortment, specimen therapy, transport, evaluation, and add into public databases.

Sublineages with weighted estimates lower than 1% of all circulating variants are mixed with their father or mother lineage. When the weighted estimate of a sublineage crosses the 1% threshold and has substitutions within the spike protein that might have an effect on vaccine efficacy, transmission, or severity, it might be separated from its father or mother lineage and displayed by itself within the variant proportions knowledge.

Nowcast estimates (supplied for the newest three weeks when the “Nowcast on” possibility is chosen beneath) are model-based projections of variant proportions for the newest weeks to allow well timed public well being motion. CDC makes use of the Nowcast to forecast variant proportions earlier than the weighted estimates can be found for a given week.

Somebody who can interpret The Nice Runes can have a look at this; however I don’t have time in the present day.

As a verify, since New York is a BQ.1* hotbed, New York hospitalization, up to date February 2:

Not as excessive as Biden’s ginormous jouissance, however nonetheless excessive.

Hospitalization knowledge for Queens, up to date January 29:

Deaths

Demise fee (Our World in Knowledge):

Complete: 1,135,341 – 1,134,259 = 1082 (1082 * 365 = 394,930 deaths per 12 months, in the present day’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would love, although they will speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may must determine that is what the powers-that-be take into account “mission completed” for this explicit tranche of dying and illness).

It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, each day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, not like all the pieces else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job. (Although CDC could also be jiggering the numbers quickly. Decrease, naturally.)

Stats Watch

Employment State of affairs: “United States Unemployment Fee” [Trading Economics]. “The unemployment fee within the US inched decrease to three.4 p.c in January 2023, the bottom stage since Could 1969 and beneath market expectations of three.6 p.c.” • I puzzled what the labor drive participation fee was:

Providers: “United States ISM Non Manufacturing PMI” [Trading Economics]. “The ISM Providers PMI for the US unexpectedly jumped to 55.2 in January of 2023, rebounding sharply from over a 2-1/2 12 months low of 49.2 in December, and beating market forecasts of fifty.4. Capability and logistics efficiency continued to enhance and nearly all of corporations indicated that enterprise is trending in a optimistic path.”

* * *

The Bezzle: “Traits in AI from Pink and Blue Workforce Views: Artificial Knowledge in a Knowledge-Pushed Society vs Sentiment Evaluation” [NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence]. “[M]ore granular textual content evaluation allows micro aggressive and aggressive textual content patterns to be searched, thus permitting the identification of hostile communications in varied on-line and social media knowledge.” • “He used… sarcasm. He knew all of the methods, dramatic irony, metaphor, pathos, puns, parody, litotes and… satire. He was vicious.”

The Bezzle: Who’s coaching who?

Tech: “Mangled Voice-to-Textual content Messages Are Embarrassing Customers” [Wall Street Journal]. “Expertise that transcribes speech in actual time retains rising in reputation—and so do our potential for gaffes. They’ve turn into so widespread that some individuals, equivalent to Ms. Nieves, have made common errors a part of their vocabulary, whereas others have realized to decode the gibberish their household and buddies ship. Within the U.S., round 82 million individuals used Alphabet Inc.’s Google Assistant and about 77 million used Apple Inc.’s Siri at the least as soon as a month final 12 months to deal with oral instructions, together with writing textual content messages, emails and social-media posts, in line with Insider Intelligence. Each numbers had been up 12% or extra from 2020, and the agency didn’t rely handbook triggering of speech transcription on telephones or laptops. The expertise permits individuals to keep away from the scourge of typing on tiny smartphone screens. Others depend on it for crafting copy hands-free, equivalent to whereas driving. The danger is it tends to show phrases into mumbo jumbo, decide up close by voices and introduce off-putting language. On social media, customers warn towards saying sure phrases, like ‘caulk’ and the shorthand ‘P & S,’ lest the talk-to-text app thinks it hears a reference to male anatomy. Whereas dictating a textual content about {golfing} to his former boss final summer season, Matt Shelton uttered, ‘Nice shot!’ earlier than hitting ‘ship.’ As he waited for a reply, Mr. Shelton, an insurance coverage agent in Winfield, Kan., appeared again on the transcription in horror. ‘Shot’ was misspelled by one letter, turning it into an expletive.” • So Google and Apple stated “Ship it!” and right here we’re.

* * *

At present’s Worry & Greed Index: 79 Excessive Greed (earlier shut: 72 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 69 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Feb 3 at 12:30 PM EST. Superior. A breakthrough to excessive greed finally.

Class Warfare

“Almost 36 Million Individuals Who Examined Optimistic for COVID-19 Report Having Lengthy COVID Signs — Together with Extra Than 40% in Mississippi” [Value Penguin]. Useful chart:

Revenue is a poor proxy for sophistication, which is a social relation. However.

“In first check earlier than appeals court docket, essential employee security legislation is affirmed, with notable caveat” [Investigate Midwest]. “Within the pandemic’s early days, workers of a Pennsylvania meals processing plant believed they confronted a direct menace. Their employer, they alleged, crowded them collectively and didn’t present sufficient masks when the federal authorities promoted social distancing and face coverings. They sued the Occupational Security and Well being Administration, hoping for reduction. After first sending letters, an inspector visited the plant, named Maid-Ceremony, about two months later. Whereas not customary process, the company gave the plant advance discover as a result of the worksite had “potential COVID-19 publicity,” because the inspector testified. In the end, the company decided an imminent hazard didn’t exist. On Tuesday, the lawsuit reached its conclusion. A federal appeals court docket dismissed the lawsuit, however, within the course of, it affirmed one of many ‘most imporant instruments’ for employees, as one former OSHA official has put it. That instrument is the suitable for employees, if confronted with ‘imminent hazard,’ to sue OSHA if the company takes no motion ‘abritrarily or capriciously.’ Whereas affirming that proper, the court docket additionally stated employees can solely sue whereas OSHA is within the midst of its enforcement proceedings, which might stretch on for years.”

Hmm:

Odi et amo….

Information of the Wired

“Learn all about it: how typography influences your understanding” [Physics World].

The realm of typography is a “magic forest”, in line with Bringhurst, endowing human language with “a sturdy, seen kind, and thus with an impartial existence”. Whereas some areas in that forest are properly travelled, many are spectacular and wild. Within the far-out font Beowulf, for example, computer systems introduce tiny random perturbations into the letters, making every barely dissimilar and studying them a surprisingly contemporary expertise.

Physicists may not understand, however typography has a huge effect on the studying expertise. Unhealthy design, Bringhurst says, makes “the letters mill and stand like ravenous horses in a area”, whereas careless design makes them “sit like stale bread and mutton on the web page”. Good design entails an “energetic repose” whose paradoxical ambition is to attract our eyes in after which vanish. The late Beatrice Ward, Bringhurst’s scholarly predecessor, in contrast typography to a crystal goblet, “as a result of all the pieces about it’s calculated to disclose somewhat than cover the gorgeous factor which it was meant to include”.

Furthermore, Bringhurst writes, selecting a font is like framing a portray in that it has to swimsuit the contents. Assume, he says, of how foolish “a cubist portray in an eighteenth-century gilded body” could be. Or, nearer to residence, think about in the event you needed to learn web page after web page of Physics World in Comedian Sans – the supposedly playful font adopted in lots of tacky PowerPoint displays and even by future CERN boss Fabiola Gianotti when she introduced the invention of the Higgs boson in 2012.

Readers, how about subsequent week is “Really feel Good Cleveland Week”? I had lots of enjoyable with Fresno:


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