The February Wisconsin Financial Outlook forecast was simply launched yesterday. So too have been January 2023 estimates for Wisconsin employment (incorporating annual benchmark revisions). How does the outlook look, given the information revisions? Fairly good within the quick time period. Over the following yr – reflecting the forecast for the Nation – not as good, with employment projected to say no modestly.

Determine 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment from January 2023 launch (blue), from December 2022 launch (tan), DoR WI Financial Outlook forecast from February 2023 (sky blue squares), from November 2022 (mild tan squares), all in 000’s, s.a. Supply: BLS, DWD, Wisconsin Financial Outlook forecast (Feb 2023, Nov 2022).

The upward revision within the WIsconsin employment forecast is sort of actually largely related to the upward revision within the nationwide forecast in employment stage.

In distinction, the GDP forecast stage has been moved down, although contour is now not for a noticeable downturn (mirroring the S&P International forecast on the nationwide stage).

Determine 2: Wisconsin GDP (blue), DoR WI Financial Outlook forecast from February 2023 (sky blue squares), from November 2022 (mild tan squares), all in bn.Ch.2012$ SAAR. Supply: BEA, DWD, Wisconsin Financial Outlook forecast (Feb 2023, Nov 2022).

The Financial Outlook forecast doesn’t present element concerning q/q actions in actual GDP. I exploit the 2021Q1-2022Q3 first log variations releationship between US GDP and WI GDP to venture out WI GDP, assuming the S&P International Market Intelligence forecast of three/8. (A one proportion level change in US GDP is related to a 0.85 proportion level change in Wisconsin GDP, with adjusted R2 of 0.78, DW=1.28.)

Determine 3: US GDP (black), S&P International Market Intelligence forecast of three/8 (chartreuse), Wisconsin GDP (blue), DoR WI Financial Outlook forecast from February 2023 (sky blue squares), and implied forecast utilizing S&P International forecast (pink), all in logs 2021Q4=0. Supply: BEA, S&P International Market Intelligence (3/8/2023), Wisconsin Financial Outlook forecast (Feb 2023).