Senior kind analyst Jamie Lynch offers his verdict on Lingfield Park’s All-Climate showpiece, the BetUK Winter Derby, stay on Sky Sports activities Racing on Saturday.

The 2022 renewal of the Winter Derby was arguably the most effective there has ever been, as Alenquer beat Lord North in a race-record time, with the pair every happening to win Group Ones by the spring.

Lord North is again with presumably the identical agenda – a stepping-stone to Dubai – which clearly clouds the in any other case easy and simple problem of means, a metric by which he is streets forward of the sector.

Let’s take an in depth take a look at all of the runners for Saturday’s renewal, stay on Sky Sports activities Racing.

Watch the BetUK Winter Derby from Lingfield Park stay on Sky Sports activities Racing (Sky 415 | Virgin 535) on Saturday February 25.

1 – Forest Of Dean

Jockey: Collen Storey; Coach: John & Thady Gosden

There are three issues in his favour. Firstly, he is match and firing, recent from a Quick-Monitor Qualifier win at Newcastle the place he had Harrovian and King Of The South behind.

Secondly, his course craft is a bonus, having completed first and fourth in earlier editions of the Winter Derby amongst different good efforts round Lingfield.

And thirdly, with age comes expertise, and, at seven, he is uncomplicated and untethered by ways, assistive belongings if, as appears doubtless, the race seems muddling and messy.

Nonetheless, he is approach behind his steady companion Lord North on figures and little or no higher than a lot of the relaxation, and it is not as if he will instantly discover an additional gear or an additional few kilos at his age.

Due to this fact, it turns into a recreation of likelihood, and, for me, there are horses at larger costs simply as doubtless as Forest Dean to achieve the rostrum.

2 – Foxes Tales

Rob Hornby; Andrew Balding

Loads of water – a lot of it murky – has handed underneath the bridge for the reason that summer season of 2021 when Foxes Tales received the Golden Gates at Royal Ascot and the Group Three Rose Of Lancaster at Haydock, displaying kind that makes him second solely to Lord North on this area.

Final season was just about a washout, together with his expertise on the wane and temperament on the rise, so it appeared, but it surely’s fascinating that Andrew Balding is persevering with him in good firm, and having him gelded in the course of the winter may make a discernible distinction to him.

Augmenting the optimism, first time is commonly a very good time to catch such characters – he received on his reappearance as a three-year-old and was second to Mostahdaf in a Group Three first time again final 12 months.

Including to the would-be stimulants, he is on the All-Climate for the primary time since his very first race in 2020. Briefly, he is fascinating due to his back-class in tandem with the doubtless reinvigorating variables in play.

3 – Harrovian

Kieran O’Neill; John & Thady Gosden

He is in his fifth season racing, and his profession has felt like expertise short-changed, incomes simply £30,000 in win prize-money, regardless of carrying a three-digit ranking round with him for 33 months.

He has run nicely on all three of his begins at Lingfield, together with ending a respectful distance behind Missed The Reduce and Algiers in third within the Churchill in November, however has since fluffed his strains when favorite for the Qualifier at Newcastle received by Forest Of Dean.

If not earlier than then why now? However maybe the reply to the query of why he is right here is to service his higher-powered team-mate Lord North, in the identical possession.

Harrovian made the operating at Newcastle, and perhaps he’ll guarantee a very good gallop in an effort to take ways out of the race and make class depend, to the advantage of Lord North.

4 – King Of The South

Jamie Spencer; William Knight

Second within the Winter Derby Trial final 12 months, however he’s largely steered away from Lingfield (regardless of his desire for synthetics) as a result of the opposite, extra galloping All-Climate programs swimsuit his fashion that significantly better.

What’s extra, the proof is mounting that the older he will get the extra he wants a mile-and-a-half – it is over two years since he final managed to win over this distance of a mile-and-a-quarter.

He completed behind each Forest Of Dean and Harrovian within the Qualifier over this journey at Newcastle in January, telling of his uphill process on this race with higher power in depth, on a sharper observe.

Until they go exhausting, which seems unbelievable trying on the line-up, it is tough to see King Of The South enjoying a lot of an element.

5 – Lord North

Rab Havlin; John & Thady Gosden

He is the eleventh highest-earning British-trained horse in historical past. That is fairly the strapline for a horse who would not actually act like one of many greats. After all, what issues as a lot as that you simply make massive cash is the way you make massive cash, and successful one and a half Sheema Classics (dead-heated on second event) is clearly an enormous money cow.

However, to deal with the Dubai greenback is to underestimate his different highlights, together with his memorable surge within the 2020 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, whereas the final time we noticed him was within the Coral-Eclipse during which he was crushed lower than a size, and unfortunate besides.

He is a category above these, however the burning query is whether or not the screws are tightened sufficiently to point out that he is a category above these, with a return journey to Meydan on the horizon.

Sure, he was overturned on this as a prep run final 12 months, however let’s not overlook that it took a race-record time and a Group One horse like Alenquer to beat him, and there is nothing of his calibre on this area.

The likelihood is that Lord North wins, however is it an odds-on likelihood, when it is not his principal goal, after an extended lay-off. I will move.

6 – Lucander

Andrea Atzeni; George Baker

This looks like a case of after the Lord Mayor’s present for Lucander, whose major goal for buy by George Baker on the finish of final 12 months was to shine in Sakhir. That was mission achieved as a result of he received not as soon as however twice in Bahrain, together with an area Group Two solely final week.

That kind, in principle, places him on a par with most in right here outdoors of Lord North, however his schedule inevitably raises some doubts to the probability of seeing a full-power model of Lucander, given a whole lot of travelling and little restoration time. Moreover, he is not accustomed to All-Climate racing, having accomplished it solely as soon as earlier than (again in 2019).

7 – Pistoletto

David Probert; John Ryan

Method out of his depth, as was the case in final 12 months’s Winter Derby when he was 150/1 and unthreatening. Has slipped to a ranking of simply 78 these days, decrease than ever within the handicap, and an experiment over hurdles earlier within the month got here to nothing.

8 – Tyrrhenian Sea

David Egan; Roger Varian

Racing is not a magnificence contest, which is a disgrace for him, as a result of he’d scoop all of the awards as such a fetching, flashy looker. Regardless of being a five-year-old, there’s nonetheless a way of unfinished enterprise about him as he is but to hit the heights his early days promised.

This might be simply the tenth race of his life and it is vital that Roger Varian remains to be pondering massive, therefore this entry, and the return to the All-Climate may very well be the making of him, remembering that he was 10/11 favorite for the Easter Traditional final Good Friday.

He gave the impression to be outstayed that day, after buying and selling at 33/1-on in-running, and has been saved to a mile ever since, but when he will final out the journey anyplace then will probably be round Lingfield.

His further velocity (relative to the remainder in right here) will depend for lots if this turns tactical, which is extra doubtless than not.

In a race during which each different runner has proven their hand, a very long time in the past in some instances, the unknown qualities of Tyrrhenian Sea mark him out from the group, in a constructive approach, and he is maybe the likeliest to face up if Lord North falls quick for health.

JAMIE LYNCH’S VERDICT

It is easy to say that is Lord North’s race to lose, due to his overwhelming energy in comparison with the opposition, however equally it is exhausting to row in massive with him at odds-on figuring out that, like final 12 months, it is his warm-up after a lay-off for the Sheema Traditional, particularly as Lingfield is a fairly unforgiving observe for any ring-rustiness.

Tyrrhenian Sea makes most sense in its place, however on the odds – as massive as 18/1 on the opening present – FOXES TALES is simply too tempting for me to withstand, provided that he is comfortably the second-best horse in right here on his previous kind and the hope that the brand new components for him – mainly being gelded – act as a catalyst for a comeback.

Watch the BetUK Winter Derby from Lingfield Park stay on Sky Sports activities Racing (Sky 415 | Virgin 535) on Saturday February 25.