The Atlantic Division within the NHL was already a hell gauntlet. With the Boston Bruins all of the sudden turning right into a staff of frost giants that may skate (then once more, it’s most likely possible frost giants may all the time skate, given the circumstances within the Jotunheim), it’s solely grow to be extra so. It’s simply three groups proper now, however for both the Tampa Bay Lightning or the Toronto Maple Leafs, they know they’re going to should beat the opposite two to get far sufficient within the playoffs to contemplate it “a run.”

The Leafs struck first in the course of the weekend, buying and selling a group of draft picks and a middling prospect to the St. Louis Blues for Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari. O’Reilly is 4 years faraway from successful the Conn Smythe Trophy as he dragged a relatively unimpressive Blues staff to a Cup — over the Bruins humorous sufficient — and although he won’t be that participant anymore he’s nonetheless extremely efficient.

There’s been plenty of speak about O’Reilly’s lack of manufacturing in St. Louis this 12 months, however that’s a false flag. Positive, O’Reilly solely had 19 factors in 40 video games with the Blues, however that had extra to do with the Blues’ incompetence than O’Reilly’s. The Blues solely shot eight % with O’Reilly on the ice. It was particularly acute on the facility play, the place the Blues’ capturing share was minimize in half with O’Reilly on the ice. He’s simply not racking up the free factors with the person benefit that he used to. That received’t be an issue in Toronto, the place he would possibly solely be on the second unit and so they don’t want him to be on it in any respect.

All the things else for O’Reilly seems in keeping with what he’s all the time been. His pictures per 60 minutes at even power, his anticipated targets, and his makes an attempt are all in line and even higher than what he’s finished the previous few years. And all that has maintained its degree whereas O’Reilly’s utilization drastically modified, which means that he went from beginning about half his shifts within the offensive zone to lower than a 3rd. The Blues had been utilizing him as a glorified checking middle, and but he was nonetheless creating and getting the identical quantity of probabilities when he was deployed as a extra offensive weapon.

Which supplies the Leafs choices. They might nonetheless use O’Reilly as that, leaving Auston Matthews and John Tavares to solely concentrate on one half of the ice, and making David Kampf among the best fourth-line facilities round. To date, that hasn’t been what coach Sheldon Keefe has opted for, as a substitute placing O’Reilly between Mitch Marner and John Tavares, however that may change come the spring.

However will the Thunder get them?

What anybody needs to know is how this can change the first-round matchup with Tampa, as a result of the Leafs and Bolts have been locked into that for weeks now. Ought to they deploy each Tavares and O’Reilly at middle, they’re definitely deeper than Tampa up entrance. Nick Paul is a very nice participant to have, however he’s not O’Reilly as a 3rd middle. If Toronto simply needs to get in a firefight and cargo up their high six with Tavares shifting to a wing on O’Reilly’s line, they nonetheless match up fairly properly with Tampa’s high six.

Was a middle Toronto’s most obvious want? No, as a result of as all the time they’re going to attempt to win a playoff collection with a confounding vortex within the crease. Matt Murray is damage once more, and Ilya Samsonov has seven playoff begins to his title. Samsonov has been superb this season (10 targets saved over anticipated) however that is the Leafs within the playoffs and we all know what a crushing, Atlas-like burden that’s for a goalie. Few groups have a positive factor in web, although. Sadly for the Leafs, they’ll be seeing one within the first spherical.

It is also argued that what the Leafs may have actually used was one other d-man. They’re nonetheless tossing out Mark Giordano on their second pairing, who’s three days older than water. Justin Holl stays a dolt. Is Morgan Rielly actually a real No. 1? The Leafs have what seems like three second pairings, which is sweet in a single sense however who’s dominating a sport once they want it?

That stated, a game-changing goalie wasn’t available on the market anyplace, and the value and match of an Erik Karlsson or Jakob Chychrun would have been close to unimaginable for Toronto. O’Reilly definitely helps, and whereas everybody went agog for the value, the picks, and middling prospect they gave up aren’t going to assist the Leafs within the subsequent two years earlier than Matthews hits free company and Toronto enters its occasion horizon.

Is it sufficient? You’ll be able to line up the Leafs and Bolts any approach you need, and on the finish, you’ll nonetheless be looking at Samsonov vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy. The one staff to beat the Lightning in a collection in three years had better depth at ahead and a generational expertise in protection to make up for the deficit that they had in aim. The Leafs could now have the better depth at ahead, however they don’t have that d-man. Is that ahead benefit large enough to beat their deficit in web? If O’Reilly can channel 2019 for 10 days, very perhaps. If he can’t…properly, it’s a spring custom, isn’t it?