Thursday, March 30, 2023
HomeEconomyWeekly Macro Indicators and Nowcasts on the Eve of SVB

Weekly Macro Indicators and Nowcasts on the Eve of SVB

Deceleration was nonetheless in place, based on the WEI.

 Determine 4: Lewis-Mertens-Inventory Weekly Financial Index (blue), OECD Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Circumstances Index for US plus 2% pattern (inexperienced). Supply: NY Fed through FREDOECDWECI, and writer’s calculations.

Nonetheless, nowcasts and monitoring estimates have been indicating progress in Q1, albeit with some large variation (and all implying a damaging output hole, taking the CBO estimate of potential as given).

Determine 2: GDP (daring black), GDPNow (pink sq.), S&P Market Perception (sky blue sq.), Goldman Sachs (mild inexperienced triangle), Survey of Skilled Forecasters survey median forecast (blue line), all in bn.Ch.2012$ SAAR. Supply: BEA 2022Q4 2nd launch, Atlanta Fed, S&P World (3/17), Goldman Sachs (3/17), Philadelphia Fed SPF (February), CBO Price range and Financial Outlook (Feb. 2023), and writer’s calculations.

Q1 progress is constructive, however barely, starting from a low at 0.6% q/q SAAR from SPMI (previously Macro Advisers, previously IHS Markit), and a excessive of three.2%, from Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow. We are actually about 40 days from the advance 2023Q1 GDP launch. Traditionally, GDPNow has barely crushed (has a barely smaller RMSFE) than the Bloomberg consensus at this horizon. As of yesterday, that appears to be round 0.55% q/q SAAR.

Supply: Liz Ann Sonders, 17 March 2023.






Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

- Advertisment -

Most Popular

Recent Comments