Earlier fixed headlines of the Ukraine-Russia struggle had been placed on pause Friday into Saturday because the American public’s consideration and discourse bought briefly consumed by the weird Chinese language ‘spy balloon’ saga, which grew extra dramatic by the hour till it was shot down by the Pentagon over the Atlantic Ocean.

However few are presently asking the required deeper questions associated to the timing. Given the final main balloon disaster to take over 24/7 community information protection ended up being an entire hoax (keep in mind the “balloon boy” stunt of 2009 which had the world breathless and on edge for a full information cycle?), the present context to the Chinese language balloon story and the query of cui bono is price a deeper dive…

Entrepreneur and geopolitical commentator Arnaud Bertrand, who as a Westerner has spent a few years residing in China and regularly makes an attempt to right the usually deceptive evaluation of mainstream press experiences, presents an ‘various view’ of what is quick unfolding beneath [emphasis ZH’s)…

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“I took a bit of time to dissect the “spy balloon” story – both how it is portrayed in the US and China’s response,” Bertrand begins a lengthy thread. As you’ll see, the more you think about it, the more stunned you get at the sheer absurdity of the whole thing.”

I took a bit of time to dissect the “spy balloon” story – both how it is portrayed in the US and China’s response.

As you’ll see, the more you think about it, the more stunned you get at the sheer absurdity of the whole thing.

A small 🧵

— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) February 4, 2023

First, the US story.

China sent a “spy balloon” over highly strategic US sites. It chose to spy on these sites with a big visible balloon (reported as being “as big as multiple school buses”), that anyone can see with the naked eye from the ground, to “demonstrate it had the capability”, despite having a plethora of other more discreet ways to spy like satellites or stealth drones.

Unclear that anyone doubted China had mastered the technology of *check notes* hot air balloons and why it therefore needed to demonstrate this capability… China chose to do so on the eve of Secretary of States Blinken’s visit to China, where he was invited, and hours after signaling Blinken would also be meeting with Xi during his visit, a high-level meeting not granted to any US Secretary of States in years.

The story therefore being that China chose to disrupt a meeting with its own president and to sabotage its own efforts at détente in the US-China conflict… The Pentagon said it had been “tracking the balloon for quite some time” and that it wasn’t the first time such an incident occurred, but this time – for unclear reasons – it chose to do a public announcement. As a result, Blinken announced he was postponing his China trip.

Now the story from the Chinese side.

To them this is a fluke accident, the balloon being “a civilian airship used for research, mainly meteorological, purposes” that “deviated far from its planned course” because of strong “Westerlies” (wind that flows west to east) and “limited self-steering capability”, the main characteristic of a balloon being of course that it can only go up or down.

A piece in WaPo seems to confirm this, quoting “experts in national security and aerospace [who] mentioned the craft seems to share traits with high-altitude balloons utilized by developed international locations around the globe for climate forecasting.”

(Supply: washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/… )

The Pentagon itself mentioned that “the payload wouldn’t supply a lot in the way in which of surveillance that China couldn’t acquire by spy satellites” and that “the balloon posed no critical bodily or intelligence menace”. 

I.e. the Pentagon themselves say it will make zero sense for China to make use of a balloon like this for intelligence functions when it has satellites. Form of begs the query why they determined to make a giant deal out of it within the first place… 

I am going to allow you to resolve for your self which story makes extra sense… The sheer ridiculousness of this Nth “purple scare” episode is completely apparent to anybody with an iota of frequent sense. Besides, sadly, frequent sense appears to be in critically quick provide these days. 

Additionally, as usually, the actual story might be why this story turned a narrative within the first place.

And the vital context right here is in fact Blinken’s go to to China, which may – one can at all times dream – have been a step in the direction of some type of de-escalation in China-US rapports. It was fairly simply foreseeable {that a} story like this one on the eve of the journey would have made it politically very tough for Blinken to go.

So a believable speculation is that this entire episode is an try by inner US forces to stop any US-China détente. One various speculation, a lot much less possible, is that it’s inner Chinese language forces making an attempt to do the identical factor by sending this huge balloon.

Unlikely as a result of:

a) China has time on its facet so it good points from diminished tensions with the US and there isn’t any apparent “faction” in China who consider the opposite

b) it’d be immensely dangerous for anybody in China to do one thing like this because it’d undoubtedly be seen as an act of excessive treason with grave penalties for themselves

c) once more, balloons like this specific one principally can’t be steered so… 

To plan sending a balloon like this from China to a spot over US land isn’t even doable within the first place. The final speculation, which I suppose can be considerably possible, is that that is a sequence of unlucky occasions with none malice on both facet.

1) Balloon deviates from course and will get in US airspace,

2) individuals see it and Pentagon feels it has to speak about it

3) the media, sporting their traditional “China dangerous” hat, resolve to go all-in on the scare-mongering,

4) political opposition and China hawks soar on the bandwagon,

5) administration feels it has no different selection than to cancel the journey and doesn’t have the political braveness to say “that is only a balloon that drifted astray”.

If Putin doesn’t do something this month, then the most important story of February 2023 could be a balloon.

— Conflict Monitor (@WarMonitors) February 4, 2023

Properly I suppose on this situation there may be in actual fact malice on the media’s half and that of politicians and wider members of the blob but it surely’s “natural malice”, so to talk, leaping at a golden alternative to scare-monger. 

Conclusion: nevertheless you see it, this story is completely shameful and a tragic reflection of the insane instances we dwell in, when reasonably than take the time to rigorously take into account information, apply motive and customary sense, we as an alternative select as a society to incite concern and hostility.