On Feb. 7, Iran unveiled a brand new underground Air Drive base referred to as “Eagle 44” in a slick propaganda video. On the wall was a clue hiding in plain sight: a poster with silhouettes of fighter jets. One specifically stands out. It’s located entrance and middle, and is within the form of a state-of-the-art army jet that Iran at the moment doesn’t possess, however which officers declare Russia is within the strategy of promoting to them.

Satellite tv for pc imagery evaluation additionally reveals what seems to be an at-scale mannequin — what consultants name a mockup — of the identical sort of fighter jet on the base. Mixed, the small print counsel two issues about Iran’s plans: Officers are optimistic in regards to the supply of those planes, and so they could possibly be intending to make use of this air base to deal with a few of them.

Since September 2022, Iranian army and political officers have publicly touted the supposed buy of 24 Su-35s, one in every of Russia’s most superior fight plane.

Russia has not confirmed the deal, however the particulars within the video and satellite tv for pc pictures counsel Iran is at the least making preparations for the arrival of the planes, which officers keep will occur later this yr. It might be the nation’s most vital improve to its ageing fighter jet fleet in many years.

Navy cooperation between Russia and Iran has been accelerated by Russia’s worldwide isolation and want for army provides following its invasion of Ukraine.

The Biden administration has described the nearer ties as “dangerous,” and stated it believes the Iranians are already receiving coaching on the brand new plane. John Kirby, a White Home spokesman, stated at a December information briefing that “these fighter planes would considerably strengthen Iran’s Air Drive relative to its regional neighbors.”

Chris Biggers is a former U.S. authorities imagery analyst and senior director for Mission Purposes at HawkEye 360, a agency that tracks radio frequency emissions all over the world. In his evaluation of the bottom, which he supplied to The Occasions’s Visible Investigations group, Mr. Biggers recognized two mockups of fight plane, together with one which matches the size of a Russian Su-35, in a building staging space. “These are doubtless being utilized in assessing clearances for maneuvering the plane all through the underground facility and will counsel they’ll be based mostly right here,” Mr. Biggers wrote.

The opposite plane mockup is one that’s at the moment within the Iranian Air Drive’s stock. “The Su-35 isn’t, however is anticipated in early 2023 as Tehran continues to help Russia’s battle in Ukraine,“ Mr. Biggers added.

Each of the doubtless mockups appeared at their present location in January whereas building on the bottom was nonetheless ongoing. They haven’t been moved since, in keeping with satellite tv for pc pictures reviewed by The Occasions. The air base should still be present process some upgrades in preparation for the doable supply. An current tunnel entrance seen within the video footage could also be too slim to accommodate the huge Russian jets. However The Occasions’s evaluation of the location exhibits that one other tunnel, maybe for bigger planes, remains to be below building.

The Iranian propaganda video assessed by The Occasions and Mr. Biggers was a part of a trove of promotional releases about Eagle 44 put out by Iran final week. It exhibits high-ranking army officers taking a tour of the bottom.

The silhouette of the primary fighter plane seen on a poster within the video matches a so-called flanker sequence jet — a time period describing fashionable Russian fighter jets such because the Su-35, stated Mr. Biggers. Iran at the moment doesn’t have plane from that sequence. The opposite silhouettes pictured are of current — and older — planes in Iran’s stock.

Ukraine battle brings nearer army cooperation

Following battlefield setbacks, Russia has turned more and more to Iran for army provides, together with drones which are typically used to conduct assaults towards massive cities equivalent to Kyiv. The sale of the Su-35s could possibly be a means of returning the favor.

“Iran’s help to Russia in Ukraine seems to be half of a bigger protection cooperation pact,” Dr. Afshon Ostovar, affiliate professor of nationwide safety affairs on the Naval Postgraduate College, informed The Occasions. “Iran may gain advantage from Russian cooperation and weapons transfers in various methods, however the two major areas the place cooperation could possibly be a lift to Iran could be by way of transfers of Russia’s superior plane and anti-air methods, equivalent to S-400.”

Dr. Ostovar stated the brand new underground facility could possibly be an efficient funding in constructing out hardened defenses, however is perhaps overkill for merely housing Iran’s present fleet of Chilly Warfare-era U.S. and Russian plane.

“I’d liken it to a model new, actually fancy storage for grandpa’s outdated Trans Am,” Dr. Ostovar stated. “Have been Iran to acquire extra superior air platforms from Russia, as has been rumored as a part of Iran’s help to Russia in Ukraine, or from China someday down the street, then the underground base would make extra sense.”

Ten years within the making

The Air Drive base is in a mountainous space in Iran’s southern Hormozgan Province, solely 100 miles north of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway that’s essential for world oil provide.

A Occasions evaluation of historic satellite tv for pc imagery of the world discovered that exercise began in August 2013, with excavation work on the underground facility seen by early 2014. As of February 2023, 5 tunnel entrances resulting in the underground shelters have been seen.

It’s unclear if the supposed use of the underground facility has at all times been for an Air Drive base. Development of the airstrip didn’t start till Might 2021, virtually eight years after the primary noticed exercise on the website, and is ongoing.