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A brand new model of an oft-cited report means that Mississippi has skilled the most important decline in at-risk rural hospitals within the U.S.
A report that beforehand discovered 38 Mississippi rural hospitals to be in jeopardy has been modified with a brand new quantity: 28. The identical report additionally signifies that it’s a widespread false impression that Medicaid growth will save rural hospitals.
In October of 2022, the Middle for Healthcare High quality and Fee Reform revealed a report that mentioned 38 rural hospitals in Mississippi had been prone to closure. The info was parroted by the Becker Hospital Evaluate, and ultimately, provided in testimony to the Mississippi Senate by State Well being Officer Dr. Daniel Edney.
“38 rural hospitals” has been repeated over and over and over once more by media throughout the state, typically together with not-so-subtle advocacy in favor of Medicaid growth. Extra just lately, it has emerged as a main speaking level of Democratic gubernatorial challenger Brandon Presley.
There’s only one factor: in January, the Middle for Well being Care High quality and Fee Reform (CHQPR) quietly modified its report.
The modified report now says 28 rural hospitals are in jeopardy in Mississippi, a 26 % drop from the quantity reported in October. If correct, this marks the most important drop of any state in alleged at-risk hospitals.
The brand new report places Mississippi in 38th place for at-risk rural hospitals. States in worse form—with greater percentages of rural hospitals in peril—embody growth states Arkansas, Connecticut, Hawaii, Nevada, New York, Oklahoma, and Vermont.
It’s unclear whether or not the brand new variety of at-risk hospitals is a byproduct of recent info, new methodology, or even perhaps indicia of a mistake.
As late as January 8th, CHQPR highlighted its earlier findings by linking to a Becker weblog that relied on CHQPR’s authentic information. On January 22nd, CHQPR Twitter account tweeted out a hyperlink to the brand new report, solely made no point out of it containing new info. There is no such thing as a date on the report, however the timing of the tweet and the truth that it refers to 2022 previously tense, means that it’s newer than the earlier one.
The previous report is not on CHQPR’s web site. It seems to have merely been changed. In making an attempt to contact CHQPR to raised perceive its methodology and the reason for the change, I couldn’t discover both a telephone quantity or electronic mail deal with on its web site.
The circumstances shine a light-weight on two phenomena that happen when folks turn into advocates as an alternative of fact seekers. The primary is an inclination to gravitate towards info that confirms our bias with out questioning the legitimacy of the knowledge.
It could be that the CHQPR report that has been so closely relied upon is totally credible, however this may imply that Mississippi hospitals are literally doing higher than beforehand understood. It could be that the report will not be credible, and this may imply that the narrative used to pummel conservatives up up to now was constructed on a basis of sand.
The second phenomenon is considered one of selectivity. Setting apart the quantity change, to my data, nobody who has cited the CHQPR information about 38 rural hospitals being in peril ever bothered to say the identical report’s conclusion on the inefficacy of increasing Medicaid. However growth was recognized within the report as a “generally proposed ‘resolution’” that “gained’t stop most closures.” In protection of this place, the CHQPR report defined that the first driver of losses at rural hospitals will not be uninsured sufferers.
It is going to be attention-grabbing to see if anybody outdoors of our humble startup experiences on the brand new findings, or if the bigger media panorama simply pretends the brand new report didn’t occur (in the identical approach they ignored the truth that the Division of Medicaid discovered that 75 % of all maternal deaths reported by the Mississippi Division of Well being had been on some type of Medicaid on the time of their dying).
I think some will deflect by saying 28 continues to be too excessive. That could be true. However in so deflecting, they may miss the larger level—inaccurate inputs erode belief and result in ineffective options.
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