AP Møller-Maersk has forecast a plunge in earnings this yr and a possible contraction in international commerce because the pandemic-driven growth in container transport involves an abrupt finish.

The world’s second-largest container transport group stated on Wednesday that underlying working earnings this yr could be $2bn-$5bn, down from the file $31bn it made final yr.

It made $5.1bn within the fourth quarter of final yr alone, whilst freight charges, which had rocketed because the pandemic disrupted international provide chains, normalised.

“We’re seeing this correction occur. It creates a number of new challenges. At the start although, it’s a return to regular . . . What we see greater than [a change in] GDP is a list correction,” Vincent Clerc, Maersk’s new chief government, advised the Monetary Occasions.

Clerc stated that clients, who embody many of the world’s largest retailers, had over-ordered through the congestion of current years.

“When this congestion goes away, you get extra items, your warehouses are full, your stock is excessive,” he added.

The primary non-Dane to go Maersk and solely within the function since January 1, Clerc faces a tough problem: presenting file outcomes for 2022 and a steep drop in earnings and demand this yr.

Maersk stated it anticipated international container demand to be between minus 2.5 per cent and plus 0.5 per cent this yr. Shares in Maersk fell by 4 per cent in early buying and selling on Wednesday.

“It’s a message about steadiness. There isn’t any portray the world like the whole lot goes to be nice and straightforward. Delivering these outcomes is extraordinary . . . We’re heading now into a unique world, and there’s no time for the workforce to lean again and say: thank God, we’re going again to regular,” Clerc stated.

Revenues in 2022 elevated by a 3rd to $82bn whereas working revenue rose by 57 per cent to $31bn.

The Danish group largely kept away from ordering new ships through the growth years in contrast to many rivals, particularly Mediterranean Transport Firm, the secretive Swiss firm run by a former Maersk government which final yr overtook it because the world’s greatest container transport line by quantity.

Some analysts consider the business is in peril of returning to the sample of growth and bust that dominated earlier than the previous decade of consolidation.

“Capital self-discipline throughout the business stays evasive. Capability investments is forward of what we foresee for demand progress,” Clerc added.

This yr is more likely to be blended for Maersk’s totally different companies. Its land-based logistics and port terminals items ought to see enhancing earnings within the second half, Clerc stated. However its essential container transport enterprise would see sturdy earnings within the first quarter due to the variety of long-term contracts employed, which might then fall all year long because the drop in freight charges feeds by way of. It might be a “fairly sharp adjustment”, he added.

Clerc, who has been at Maersk for 1 / 4 of a century, most not too long ago as head of container transport and logistics, stated he would persist with Maersk’s technique of bulking up its logistics enterprise and deal with fixing clients’ provide chain issues.

Though Maersk is forecasting a pointy drop in profitability in contrast with final yr, working earnings of $2bn-$5bn could be higher than what it delivered in 2017-19 in addition to probably 2020’s $4.2bn.