March 2022: The Los Angeles Rams had been lower than a month faraway from their Tremendous Bowl parade and NFL free company was simply underway. Followers had been a naive group previous to that 2022 offseason, having no thought about the storm of game-changing strikes that lay instantly in entrance of us. Earlier than Russell Wilson to the Broncos, Davante Adams to the Raiders, Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins, and AJ Brown to the Eagles, there was one transfer that set all of the big-name free agent signings into movement — Christian Kirk signing a four-year, $72 million (as much as $84 million by incentives) cope with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Positive, this wasn’t the primary transfer of the offseason, because the tweet above mentions, nevertheless it was the primary main signing. Kirk had simply come off the perfect season of his profession, racking up 77 receptions, 982 yards, and 5 touchdowns with the Arizona Cardinals. Nonetheless, when phrase hit the web of Kirk’s deal, followers in every single place collectively tilted their heads in confusion. Positive, he was respectable, however not value as much as $21 million a yr, proper?

Properly, after one season in Jacksonville, the Jaguars seem like geniuses. When thrust into the highlight, Kirk thrived, setting new profession highs in each class that issues. He expedited quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s improvement and his Jags are set to run the AFC South for years to come back. Though paying somebody with as little success within the NFL as Kirk appeared questionable on the time, it paid dividends as a result of the Jaguars noticed what Kirk may turn out to be. Each group ought to be striving for a brand new fancy extensive receiver to assist their younger quarterback, even when it means paying a fairly penny. Hill helped Tua Tagovailoa. Brown helped Jalen Hurts. Though so many proficient receivers will not be obtainable by commerce as had been final offseason, the 2023 free-agent class nonetheless holds a number of gems on the place, most notably 26-year-old Jakobi Meyers.

What about different free-agent WR expertise?

Whereas different, extra established receivers like Tremendous Bowl champ JuJu Smith-Schuster or Aaron Rodgers’ high goal from 2022 Allen Lazard could also be safer choices, the upside that Meyers brings to the desk may be very paying homage to pre-Jags Christian Kirk. Meyers thrives within the slot — though he has proven an capacity to win on the surface as effectively. In 2022, he lined up within the slot for 333 offensive snaps (51.7 % of the time) — the Sixteenth-most slot snaps within the league. He collected 67 receptions, 804 receiving yards, and 6 touchdowns in simply fourteen video games whereas working in a really run-heavy, conservative offense with subpar quarterback play and Matt Patricia as his offensive coordinator. That’s lots of components working in opposition to Meyers, and but he confirmed flashes of high receiver potential.

Now, Kirk and Meyers don’t share most of the identical instruments. Kirk is a YAC monster with upper-end pace and elusiveness. Meyers excels in contested catch conditions. Over the past three years, he’s maintained a 69 % catch fee on contested balls. That’s probably the greatest marks within the league. Nonetheless, the purpose nonetheless stays. Each gamers had been underutilized by the group that drafted them and had the instruments to burst into stardom underneath the appropriate circumstances. Fortunate for Meyers, Kirk paved the best way for the NC State product to earn an enormous payday forward of 2023.

The place can Meyers excel?

The subsequent query ought to be “Okay, effectively clearly, the Patriots weren’t the appropriate system to maximise Meyers’ abilities. Who’s?” The only reply could be to copy a group within the Jaguars’ state of affairs — good head coach, younger quarterback, stable run recreation however not a run-heavy offense, and in want of expertise at receiver. The New York Giants fulfill three of these classes. Sadly, they’re a fairly run-heavy group, rating twenty second in pass-play share final season. Moreover, the run recreation may not be as stable for Large Blue in 2023 ought to Saquon Barkley not be re-signed. The Colts and/or Texans are in all probability the perfect matches relying on what they do within the upcoming draft. Positive, each groups are heading into 2023 with rookie head coaches, which may additionally alter their pass-heavy tendencies from 2022 (rating ninth and tenth within the league), however that’s as near 4 verify marks as we’re going to get.

Meyers’ deal may set the usual for the remainder of the 2023 free agent extensive receiver class as effectively. In actuality, although, nobody, besides possibly Smith-Schuster ought to come near the common annual worth Meyers will command. Odell Beckham Jr. is getting older and didn’t play in any respect final season. Allen Lazard had a possibility to take over all of the targets Davante Adams left in Inexperienced Bay. He acquired outshined by a pair of rookie extensive receivers. Darius Slayton was inconsistent. Julio Jones simply ain’t the man he as soon as was.

The very fact of the matter is that a number of groups watched different organizations pay large cash for extensive receivers final offseason, and nearly all of them panned out precisely how their franchise had hoped. Even when Meyers doesn’t possess the talents essential to explode in 2023 as Kirk did. I discover it onerous to suppose some group gained’t be keen to take such a danger. Personally, although, I place confidence in him. Don’t be shocked when it occurs.