Italy votes for new head of state and leadership challenges are in the air

Hello and welcome to the work week.

Changes in political leadership are back on the agenda – I warned you this will be a 2022 issue.

First, we expect this to be the week that Sue Gray finally releases the Partygate report. Will it produce a smoking gun for rebel MPs to end Boris Johnson’s time at Downing Street, or will it allow the Prime Minister to wriggle out of this latest existential crisis of leadership? It’s Burns Night on Tuesday, so perhaps a good time for those plotting Johnson’s downfall to reflect on the Scottish poet’s wisdom about the best plans of mice and men.

In Italy there will be a change at the top with the start of the presidential elections on Monday. Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who has done much to restore confidence in the Italian government and unite the nation, is the front runner – he also has the support of the FT editorial board and former Economist editor Bill Emmott. But the process of deciding who will replace Sergio Mattarella, whose seven-year tenure ends on February 3, is complex – made all the more so by Silvio Berlusconi’s attempted comeback. And if Draghi wins, who will replace him as prime minister?

The week ends on Sunday with elections in Portugal called by the country’s President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa two years ahead of schedule after Parliament rejected the socialist minority government’s 2022 budget. Political change is in the air. Anger over multiple corruption scandals fuels support for populist candidates.

At The Week Ahead, do we cater to your needs? Cast your vote by emailing jonathan.moules@ft.com.

economic data

This week’s main economic event comes on Wednesday when the Federal Open Market Committee announces its latest decision on US interest rates, though it will likely be a holding operation, with the first rate hike broadly expected in March.

However, there are plenty of other items on the diary that give us a better indication of Omicron’s impact on economic growth around the holiday season, with a range of quarterly GDP estimates and PMI data.

companies

China is the unifying factor for this week’s corporate earnings reports.

As have HM‘s full-year sales — released Friday — have been impacted by the state-influenced consumer boycott of its clothing in China? How much does Sweden’s tough stance on Huawei hurt? ericsson, whose numbers come out on Tuesday?

China is one reason why analysts expect healthy quarterly figures Apple, which reported on Thursday. Sales were helped as the tech company’s products gained market share among wealthier Chinese users.

The availability of technology – especially semiconductors – will strain minds Hyundais investors. Hyundai did relatively well last year after stocking up on components — though 2021 sales fell short of targets due to depleted inventories — and the automaker is expected to post the highest on strong demand for Genesis recreational vehicles and premium sedans will report operating profit for eight years.

Finally, there are also high hopes for Tesla, whose auto production numbers have, uh, surged forward.

Important economic and company reports

Here’s a more complete list of what to expect this week in terms of corporate reports and economic data.

Monday

• Eurozone, France, Germany, Japan, UK, US: IHS Markit Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data releases

• South Korea GDP numbers

• UK, Bank of England quarterly report on the asset purchase facility

• Results: Halliburton Q4, IBM Q4, Phillips Q4

Tuesday

• Germany, monthly business climate index of the ifo Institute

• Remy Cointreau Sales update Q3

• UK, HMRC releases data on tax vouchers and social security contributions

• US, Federal Housing Finance Agency, monthly home price index and consumer confidence data

• Results: 3M Q4, American Express Q4, Atlas Copco Q4, ericsson Q4, General Electric Q4, Hyundai engine Q4, Johnson&Johnson Q4, Lockheed Martin Q4, Texas Instruments Q4, tods GJ, Verizon Q4

Wednesday

• Canada, Bank of Canada rate decision

• France, consumer confidence figures

• US, Federal Open Market Committee meeting on rate decision

• Results: AT&T Q4, Boeing Q4, intel Q4, Lonza Group GJ, Nidec Q3, Tesla Q4, WizzAir Q3

• Trading update: Brewin Dolphin Q1, CMC Markets Q3

Thursday

• Anglo-American Production Report Q4

• Germany, consumer confidence data

• US GDP Q4 estimate plus consumer spending data

• Results: Apple Q1, Banco Sabadell Q4, Komcast Q4, Deutsche Bank H1, Diageo H1, easyJet Q1, JetBlue Airways Q4, LVMH GJ, MasterCard Q4, MC Donalds Q4, Mondelēz International Q4, Northrop Grumman Q4, Rogers Communications Q4, Safilo group GJ, Samsung electronics Q4, JUICE GJ, Sartorius GJ, STMicroelectronics Q4, Visas Q1

• Trading Updates: CVS group H1, fever tree GJ, Mitie Q3

Friday

• France, preliminary figures for Q4 GDP plus Producer Price Index (PPI).

• Germany, GDP figures for Q4

• Italy, PPI data

• UK, Bank of England capital issues statistics

• USA, Personal Income and Expense Data

• Results: Caterpillar Q4, rafters Q4, Colgate-Palmolive Q4, Daiwa Securities Q3, HM GJ, Saipem Q3, UniCredit GJ, Volvo Q4

world events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones from this week.

Monday

• EU, UK: British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and EU Commissioner Maros Sefcovic, who is responsible for the Brexit negotiations, are meeting in Brussels for further talks

• Italy, Libya: Presidential elections

• Switzerland, Executive Board of the World Health Organization begins its 150th session in Geneva

• Britain begins a year of events to celebrate the 1900th anniversary of Hadrian’s Wall today on the birthday of the Roman Emperor

Tuesday

• Egypt, 11th anniversary of the start of the Egyptian revolution with street protests, labor strikes and violent clashes

• The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels

• UK, Burns Night, which is celebrated on Scottish poet Robert Burns’ birthday and in London, Thomas Gainsborough’s ‘The Blue Boy’ returns to the National Gallery 100 years after it was last exhibited and England will lift most remaining Covid restrictions , such as mask wearing and vaccination records

Wednesday

• Australia Day, marking the arrival of the First Fleet at Sydney Cove in 1788

• India, Republic Day commemorating the introduction of the Indian Constitution

Thursday

• Honduras, Xiomara Castro to be sworn in as country’s first female president

• International Holocaust Remembrance Day marking the 77th anniversary of the liberation of Nazi German concentration camp Auschwitz

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

• Australia, men’s final day of the Australian Open tennis tournament

• Portugal, general elections.