The Survey of Skilled Forecasters February survey was launched on Friday. The median outlook has improved significantly since early January.

Determine 1: GDP as reported (daring black), Survey of Skilled Forecasters median  February 2023 (crimson), November 2022 (mild inexperienced), WSJ January 2023 median (teal), FT-IGM median (tan sq.), and IMF January 2023 WEO projection (sky blue triangle), all in bn.Ch.2012$ SAAR. All forecast ranges based mostly on development charges and GDP stage out there at time of forecast, aside from SPF. Supply: BEA (2022Q4 advance), Philadelphia Fed SPF (varied), WSJ (January), FT-IGM (December), IMF WEO (January 2023 replace), and creator’s calculations. 

Discover the trajectory of GDP within the February SPF forecast is elevated due to the reporting of 2022Q4 GDP (which was stronger than earlier anticipated)  and sooner projected development relative to that seen within the WSJ January survey (in my expertise, when the SPF and WSJ surveys had been reported in the identical month, they often seemed very comparable; the WSJ survey now comes out on a schedule one month off of the SPF mid-quarter timing).

The chance of a detrimental quarter of GDP development (q/q) has gone down since November 2022’s survey, with the very best chance related to 2023Q3 (beforehand, it was 2023Q2).

Supply: Philadelphia Fed (February 2023).

The SPF gives an image of the distribution of year-on-year development for 2023 (observe that in Determine 1, the SPF median quarter-on-quarter development implies a one quarter detrimental development charge in 2023Q3).

Supply: Philadelphia Fed (February 2023).

Employment development was additionally revised upward, though the forecasts don’t seem to replicate the benchmark revisions that pushed December 2022 NFP employment by over 800K (see dialogue right here).

Determine 2: Nonfarm payroll employment from January 2023 (benchmark revised) launch (darkish blue), from December 2022 launch (sky blue), Survey of Skilled Forecasters February 2023 survey (darkish crimson), and November 2022 survey (pink), all in 000’s, s.a. Supply: BLS by way of FRED, and Philadelphia Fed (varied). 

The median forecast exhibits 2023Q2 NFP employment development at basically zero, versus -14,500/month in 2023Q4, within the November survey. By this measure, no recession happens in 2023 (recalling that NBER locations main weight on employment and private revenue ex-current transfers, see right here).