(When you’re questioning about estimating seasonals — and also you could be proper surprise — then right here’s the choice.) QCEW information should not reported on a seasonally adjusted foundation, which makes comparability with the opposite frequently reported BLS collection, primarily based on surveys, tough. One solution to deal with this situation, whereas sacrificing a extra present perspective, is to make use of 12 month modifications. Right here is the QCEW collection in contrast in opposition to two others measures of nonfarm payroll development.

Determine 1: 12 month log distinction in nonfarm payroll employment from January 2023 CES launch incorporating benchmark revisions, s.a. (blue), family collection adjusted to NFP idea (mild inexperienced), family collection adjusted, excluding inhabitants controls for January, s.a. (inexperienced +), QCEW whole coated employees, n.s.a. (pink). Gentle blue shading denotes a hypothesized 2022H1 recession. Supply: BLS (varied) and ADP by way of FRED, BLS QCEW, Philadelphia Fed by way of FRED, and writer’s calculations.

By means of September 2022, the 12 month development charge within the CES NFP is 3.9% (utilizing seasonally adjusted, or utilizing seasonally unadjusted), whereas that for the QCEW is 4.2%. In numbers, the comparability is 5.9 million vs 6.2 million (CES vs QCEW).

See additionally this put up.

1. QCEW is at the moment registering a bigger 12 month change in proportion phrases and numbers.
2. No collection registers a adverse entry throughout the putative 2022H1 recession argued by some.