Whereas many on the earth see the Chinese language spy balloon as an indication of Beijing’s rising aggressiveness, China has sought to forged the controversy as a symptom of america’ irrevocable decline.

Why else would an amazing energy be spooked by a flimsy inflatable craft, China has argued, if not for a raft of inner issues like an intensely divided society and intractable partisan strife driving President Biden to behave robust on Beijing?

The balloon incident “has proven to the world how immature and irresponsible — certainly hysterical — america has been in coping with the case,” learn a latest editorial within the Folks’s Day by day, the ruling Communist Celebration’s mouthpiece.

Chinese language propaganda has tried to attain factors towards the Biden administration, mocking it as flailing, overreacting and making an attempt to outflank its hard-right Republican opponents to exhibit who can stand taller towards Beijing. Nowhere in China’s response has the federal government acknowledged the balloon’s price to its personal credibility and the mounting proof that it was all too prepared to spy on its neighbors and past.

As a substitute, on Tuesday, China sought to indicate it had already moved on from the incident. A lot of the nation’s messaging tended to strategic pursuits elsewhere on the earth. China’s ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, spoke of shoring up ties with the European Union to interrupt the grip of U.S. affect throughout the bloc. And China welcomed Iran’s hard-line president, Ebrahim Raisi, to Beijing, the place he’ll meet with China’s prime chief, Xi Jinping, in an indication of the 2 international locations’ shared imaginative and prescient of a extra multipolar world, freed from Washington’s dominance.

Mr. Xi underscored that time final week when he delivered a speech on the Central Celebration Faculty through which he proclaimed that “Chinese language-style modernization” was a brand new mannequin for human development that dispelled the notion that “modernization is the same as Westernization.”

The speech echoed extra subtly the regular drumbeat of anti-American rhetoric that has stuffed the opinion sections of Chinese language state media for the reason that balloon was shot down off the coast of South Carolina on Feb. 4. China has asserted that america overreacted by downing the balloon, which the Chinese language insist was a civilian airship that was blown off beam. American officers say the vessel belonged to an enormous Chinese language surveillance program designed to gather info on the navy capabilities of nations all over the world.

Tensions heated up over the weekend, with the U.S. taking pictures down three unidentified flying objects over North America and China asserting it could down a mysterious craft close to the Bohai Sea. It marked a second of geopolitical brinkmanship amid deepening considerations in regards to the trajectory of the connection between China and america, now at its lowest level in a long time.

On the coronary heart of that disquiet are questions in regards to the means of every nation’s management to handle nationalistic sentiment and steer the 2 powers away from a collision course.

As China’s most ardent nationalist chief in generations, Mr. Xi can’t be seen bowing to U.S. stress with out undermining his core promise to the Chinese language individuals of rejuvenating the nation, a venture he frames in civilizational phrases as the East rising and the West declining.

That provides Mr. Xi little room to venture something however toughness over the balloon.

“Due to the propaganda lately, it’s not doable for China to make concessions or apologize to america. Chinese language individuals can’t settle for a weak perspective from their authorities,” mentioned Xing Yue, a professor of worldwide relations at Tsinghua College in Beijing.

China’s tone has shifted markedly in latest days. After at first uncharacteristically expressing remorse for the balloon that emerged over Montana, China accused america of waging “info and public opinion warfare.” This week, Beijing mentioned that high-altitude American balloons had flown over Chinese language airspace on greater than 10 events since Might of final yr, a declare the White Home instantly denied.

On Tuesday, Wang Wenbin, a Chinese language overseas ministry spokesman, doubled down, asserting that the Pentagon has spent billions of {dollars} in creating high-altitude reconnaissance balloons and has transitioned these initiatives to navy companies. He accused america of utilizing extreme drive in taking pictures the balloon down. “The U.S. must be cautious not pull a muscle whereas flexing so exhausting,” he mentioned.

Chinese language state media has drawn consideration to partisan divisions inside america. It has recommended that the Biden administration shot down the airship to enhance the president’s approval scores and since he had been criticized by Republican lawmakers for not taking motion sooner.

“The Biden administration’s selections on the balloon episode had been hijacked by U.S. home politics,” the Folks’s Day by day mentioned in an editorial.

That view isn’t restricted to state propaganda; it’s additionally held by extra measured voices within the nation’s overseas coverage neighborhood, similar to Zheng Yongnian, an influential political scientist on the Chinese language College of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, who has warned that rising nationalism in america will doubtless give rise to extra nationalism in China.

“The No. 1 international danger at this time is U.S. home politics,” mentioned Mr. Zheng, who has served as an adviser to senior officers. In contrast to extra strident commentators in China, Mr. Zheng disagrees that america is in structural decline.

“The U.S. nonetheless has robust governance, it’s nonetheless the richest nation and it nonetheless has the largest navy,” Mr. Zheng mentioned. However when he appears to Washington, he mentioned, he sees a president straining to steadiness his need to search out frequent floor with Beijing and his want to face agency towards China.

In a political local weather the place hawkish views on China are being embraced by each events, lawmakers might face rising stress to exhibit their resolve to confront Beijing. The Biden administration, for instance, is accused of being delicate on China by Republicans, regardless of irritating Beijing by banning exports of important semiconductor know-how to China and by bolstering navy ties with allies within the area, together with Japan, the Philippines and Australia.

Mr. Zheng mentioned China ought to keep away from battle with america and discover areas of cooperation, similar to combating local weather change and supporting international well being initiatives, that might scale back pressure.

That could possibly be troublesome if Kevin McCarthy, the brand new Home speaker, follows by way of on a suggestion he would go to Taiwan, risking a repeat of the huge navy workout routines China carried out when the previous speaker, Nancy Pelosi, traveled to the self-governing island final yr.

One other potential flash level might happen within the spring, when Mr. Xi is predicted to satisfy with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in Moscow. China has tacitly supported the struggle in Ukraine.

Analysts say there’s nonetheless room for america and China to stabilize ties. Mr. Blinken and Wang Yi, China’s prime overseas coverage official, will each attend the annual Munich Safety Convention in Germany, which begins Friday. Whereas no assembly between the 2 has been scheduled, Ned Worth, a State Division spokesman, mentioned administration officers had been “dedicated to retaining traces of communication open” between Washington and Beijing.

It’s tougher for China to ship such alerts as a result of most of its public messaging is crafted with a home viewers in thoughts. Nonetheless, there are robust incentives for Beijing to decrease the temperature, none extra pressing than the necessity to revive an financial system battered by years of stringent Covid restrictions.

In a speech final week on the U.S.-China Enterprise Council, Xu Xueyuan, chargé d’affaires of the Chinese language Embassy in america, mentioned she hoped the balloon incident is not going to discourage American companies from investing in China.

“This incident shouldn’t be allowed to offset the efforts we now have put in place in stabilizing bilateral relations,” Ms. Xu mentioned, in response to a overseas ministry assertion.

The query now’s which nation will provide an olive department first. Any such gesture comes on the danger of showing to accommodate the opposite facet. China is discovering it exhausting to look robust with out additional inflaming tensions with america, mentioned Ryan Hass, a senior fellow on the Brookings Establishment and a former Nationwide Safety Council director for China. “When compelled to decide on, they’ll prioritize their home viewers over exterior audiences,” he mentioned.

“Above all, although, I sense that the Chinese language are keen to maneuver on,” he mentioned. “They wish to put the spy balloon situation behind them with out showing to supply any concessions within the course of.”

Michael Crowley contributed reporting from Washington. Olivia Wang contributed analysis from Hong Kong.