Tremendous Bowl LVII is sort of right here, and in case you’re like all goal observer, you’ve been gazing this matchup on paper for therefore lengthy that you simply’re second-, triple- and quadruple-guessing your self. The road hasn’t budged in any respect since settling in at Eagles -1.5, and that ought to inform you one factor: Stick to your preliminary ideas.

The betting tendencies haven’t been sufficient to sway oddsmakers by hook or by crook, and it appears like Vegas doesn’t wish to write off the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs due to the Patrick Mahomes variable. So keep on with your intestine as a result of that’s precisely what the sharps are doing.

With that mentioned, the road signifies a case may be made for each groups, and that’s exactly what I’m going to do.

Philadelphia will get a lead and doesn’t look again

My preliminary intestine feeling was Philly goes to roll. They hardly ever trailed this 12 months when wholesome and making an attempt, and the playoffs haven’t been any completely different. Each of the Birds’ playoff video games had been over earlier than the half, and as soon as Philly will get momentum, it’s actually all downhill from there for opponents.

The defensive position is a bear to cope with when the opposition is one-dimensional, they usually like to get after the quarterback. Philly led the NFL in sacks this season with 70, and has carried out that principally with the entrance 4. They’re within the backside half of the league in blitz share, and that’ll assist hold an already hampered Mahomes and that KC offense contained to methodical, lengthy drives.

If I’m Nick Sirianni, and I win the toss, I’m taking the ball and making an attempt to get the Chiefs in a trailing place from the bounce. The Eagles’ offense is so various that it’s close to not possible to cease them once they can use your entire playbook.

Add in the specter of Jalen Hurts within the run recreation, and the protection’s solely hope is that area place deters the Eagles from going for it on fourth-and-brief. This Philly workforce completely adores bullying squads, and after a bunch of physique blows that’s once they hit you with massive performs to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

They’re as assured as they’re scary, and ooze the vibe of a gaggle that might win a title largely untested. And that may simply be as a result of few groups, if any, have actually been ok to truly compete with them.

Kansas Metropolis retains it shut, and Mahomes goes full Rambo

The prevailing argument I’ve seen towards Philly is that they’ve overwhelmed up on a bunch of mongrel QBs all 12 months, and Mahomes is a purebred. I agree. He simply gained his second MVP, and shouldn’t be doubted after beating Cincinnati on one leg.

The second most spectacular facet of that win towards the Bengals was the Chiefs’ protection. Joe Burrow had the ball twice late within the fourth quarter with an opportunity to go in entrance, and the KC secondary made a play adopted shortly thereafter by Chris Jones and the defensive position. A D-line that, oh by the best way, is second within the NFL in sacks (albeit 15 lower than the Eagles’ 70).

Jones and Frank Clark headline that unit, which is why it will get talked a couple of ton. Nevertheless, they really completed eighth in rush protection, and that’ll be the important thing for them. Burrow and Josh Allen give Kansas Metropolis matches due to their legs — be it Burrow scrambling for giant conversions two weeks in the past, or Allen with the demise by a thousand designed QB runs. One thing Philly goes to do fairly a bit I think about.

There’s been hypothesis that Hurts continues to be ailing, however that is the Tremendous Bowl, so I don’t assume he’ll be too deterred from utilizing his legs. Mahomes’ mobility is my essential concern with Kansas Metropolis. Ask Brock Purdy if that Eagles entrance 4 fucks round. I don’t know if Mahomes may even go full Rambo with that ankle, and he’s the offense.

Whereas Isiah Pacheco and the offensive line have been large, Andy Reid loathes working the ball. Philly is aware of that in addition to anybody. He can attempt to do the short passes and defend his QB, however the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers tried that, and each obtained boat-raced. The Eagles are going to be dry-humping Travis Kelce all around the State Farm Stadium area, and Mahomes must be even higher than he was within the AFC title recreation. If he’s, it’ll be some God-level quarterbacking, and that’s simply to maintain it shut not to mention win.

That’s what I’m rooting for as a result of it’d be improbable to observe, and, y’know, fuck the Eagles. Be that as it could, if I needed to put cash on it, Philly covers of their sleep.