Kyiv, Ukraine – It seemed like a deliberate manoeuvre by a talented pilot that led to the primary direct army conflict between america and Russia since Moscow invaded Ukraine.

Two Russian fighter jets approached a US drone flying within the cloudless, azure sky over worldwide waters within the Black Sea on Tuesday morning.

One of many Russian Su-27s launched a stream of jet gas on the MQ-9 Reaper drone, inflicting its cameras to close off.

Then the Su-27 hit the Reaper’s propeller, inflicting it to tumble into the ocean, the Pentagon mentioned.

It mentioned the Reaper was a “reconnaissance drone” and carried no arms, though the unmanned plane with a wingspan of 26 metres (85 toes) was designed as a “hunter-killer” armed with laser-guided bombs and missiles.

It was probably the most important direct conflict between superpowers for the reason that Ukraine struggle started final February.

Tuesday’s incident befell off the coast of Crimea, the jewel in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s crown that had been annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

Moscow has repeatedly careworn that it’s involved about Crimea’s security – some Western observers would say Russia is fairly paranoid – and the necessity for a “land bridge” between Russia and the Black Sea peninsula was one of many foremost causes the Kremlin began the struggle.

The US launched a video filmed by the drone that was pressured to crash within the Black Sea after it was intercepted by two Russian fighter jets in worldwide airspace ⤵️

🔗: https://t.co/H2hj0LkiIi pic.twitter.com/E4Su5r2eDn

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) March 16, 2023

Moscow mentioned it had warned the US to not enter the zone of what the Kremlin calls a “particular army operation” in Ukraine.

Russia’s defence Ministry acknowledged that the Su-27 jets scrambled the drone because it was flying in direction of the Russian border and had its transponder off.

It warned that the incident might result in an “escalation” within the Black Sea basin.

“Flights of US strategic unmanned autos close to the coast of Crimea are of a provocative character making a pretext for the escalation within the Black Sea zone,” it mentioned in a press release.

‘Balanced power’

So, has the Reaper’s downing turn out to be a casus belli, and is there a threat of a direct army confrontation between america and Russia?

Specialists say it’s unlikely.

Russians are “morbidly obsessive about responses”, in response to Ukraine’s prime army analyst.

The drone’s downing was retaliation for the injury inflicted upon a key Russian plane in late February, says Lieutenant Normal Ihor Romanenko, former deputy chief of the Normal Employees of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

A drone assault in an airfield in pro-Russian Belarus north of the Ukrainian border focused one among solely 9 B-50 planes that may determine the places of Ukrainian air defence models.

Belarusian “guerrilla fighters” claimed accountability for the assault, and the broken airplane was taken again to Russia.

Washington ought to reply to the drone’s downing with “balanced” power, Romanenko mentioned.

“There needs to be punishment, monetary and demonstrative,” he advised Al Jazeera.

The US ought to use “balanced power that won’t immediate a world struggle and using nuclear weapons. That’s what Russians will perceive,” he mentioned.

He mentioned {that a} bigger battle is off the desk as a result of NATO’s foremost objective in serving to Ukraine is “to not escalate” the persevering with struggle.

The West has spent tens of billions on army assist to Ukraine however has been extraordinarily cautious about not fanning the flames of Europe’s bloodiest armed battle since WWII.

One other knowledgeable agrees that the downing was Russia’s revenge – however for one more demonstrative incident.

On Saturday, a US B-52 warplane flew over the Baltic and approached a Russian island close to the Gulf of Finland.

“That is some sort of a warning,” Nikolay Mitrokhin, an historian with Germany’s Bremen College, advised Al Jazeera.

“However the impact will likely be reverse – in three months, on the newest, Western fighter jets will likely be in Ukraine, and ‘retired [Western] volunteers’ will pilot them,” he mentioned.

Consolidation

The drone incident is counterproductive to the Kremlin as a result of it’ll increase the faltering public help for Ukraine in america, one other observer mentioned.

“The drone’s downing has led to a fair bigger consolidation of US political elites on Russia,” Pavel Luzin, a defence analyst with the Jamestown Basis, a assume tank in Washington, DC, advised Al Jazeera. “That’s the primary consequence up to now,” he mentioned.

Despite the fact that US President Joe Biden mentioned that Washington would again Ukraine for “so long as it takes” to overcome Russia, polls present that Individuals are much less supportive of serving to Kyiv with arms.

Forty-eight % of Individuals mentioned they favour army assist to Ukraine, and 29 % are against it, in response to a ballot from The Related Press-NORC Middle for Public Affairs Analysis launched in mid-February.

In Might 2022, 60 % of Individuals supported the help, it mentioned.

In the meantime, main Republican presidential candidates, former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, have mentioned that backing Ukraine contradicts US strategic pursuits.

Blaming the US

To Moscow, the collision appeared like a pretext to equal Russia and the US as “nice powers”.

“Any incidents that provoke a confrontation of two nice powers, two of the world’s largest nuclear powers, at all times carry very severe dangers. The US can’t however perceive it,” Russian Overseas Minister Sergey Lavrov mentioned in televised remarks.

A Ukrainian army analyst mentioned the drone incident was Moscow’s determined try to start out direct talks with the US because the Kremlin tries to discover a approach out of the quagmire.

Moscow’s preliminary targets of seizing the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, and changing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s authorities with pro-Kremlin puppets failed.

“From the Russian aspect, it seems like an ‘data assault,’ [an attempt] to start out negotiations with the Individuals,” retired Ukrainian colonel Roman Svitan advised the Nastoyashchee Vremya web site.

Despite the fact that the Pentagon mentioned it erased the drone’s reminiscence, Russia may additionally attempt to fish the drone’s particles out and research it.

“We will certainly look into it,” Nikolai Patrushev, a longtime ally of Putin and the secretary of Russia’s Safety Council, mentioned in televised remarks.