A week of elections and electioneering

Hello and welcome to the work week.

Political change is in the air. First, what we know will happen. There will be new leadership for the European Parliament by secretly voting for the President on Monday.

It follows the death of David Sassoli last week, although the Italian Democrat was due to step down this week under a power-sharing deal with the centre-right European People’s Party. He is likely to be succeeded by Roberta Metsola, a Maltese MEP selected by the EPP as the presidential candidate.

We don’t know for sure if Emmanuel Macron will run in the presidential elections in France later this year. But we do know that he will be addressing the European Parliament on Wednesday to deliver a speech to mark France’s assumption of the EU’s rotating presidency. He will certainly be aware of the political capital that can be gained with this performance.

Then there’s the great unknown surrounding the UK government’s ‘Partygate’ scandals. This could be the week that Sue Gray wraps up her official account, detailing what happened in specific events. It feels like the drinking puns are all but exhausted – running dry has surely been used by someone before – but they seem so fitting for a prime minister who faces ignominious sacking from his job. However, it is a brave soul who is betting against Boris Johnson’s remarkable survival instinct, as this in-depth analysis by the FT’s political team revealed last week.

Then there are the outside forces that threaten to overwhelm a government. Watch for more news from the Russia-Ukraine frontline, where tensions will not be eased by Ukraine marking its Unity Day on Saturday, a day after Ukraine marked Lenin’s death anniversary.

economic data

Whether you think inflation spikes around the world are temporary or stuck, the story of rising cost of living has a long way to go.

This week’s release is supported by consumer and producer price index data from Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada and Italy, as well as the release of the minutes of the December Governing Council meeting.

The Bank of Japan holds its monthly meeting and is expected to raise its growth and inflation forecasts but leave interest rates and other measures unchanged. The Fed goes into “purdah” ahead of the Jan. 26 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

China is set to set monthly key lending rates, while Turkey is expected to leave rates unchanged – no doubt a relief to those affected by the lira’s collapse after 500 basis points of rate cuts in quick succession.

companies

Earnings season will be in full swing and US markets are in for a bumper crop of results. The pandemic has been a boom time for streaming services — although the decline has been felt by more traditional industries.

Netflix had arguably the strongest roster of original content to date in the fourth quarter Squid Game madness that continues its run and the highly anticipated release ofDon’t look up.

However, some analysts say the streaming pioneer may still struggle to reach the consensus expectation of 8.7 million new subscribers when it reports results on Thursday — largely due to increased competition from its peers, which are spending significant sums on new TV programming and have spent films. MoffettNathanson, the investment research firm, last week lowered its estimate of new subscribers at Netflix in the fourth quarter to 8.6 million from 9.6 million.

Delivery app companies have also thrived during the pandemic – and most recently during the desire to stay home to avoid Omicron, as noted by #techft lead author Chris Nuttall in his latest newsletter. Expect this to be reflected in the trading update of Deliveroo on Thursday.

Important economic and company reports

Here’s a more complete list of what to expect this week in terms of corporate reports and economic data.

Monday

• Canada, Monthly Manufacturing Survey and Business Outlook

• China: Q4 GDP, monthly industrial production and retail sales

• International Labor Organization report on employment trends in 2022

• Italy, Consumer Price Index (CPI) monthly inflation data

• Japan, Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting begins in Tokyo

• Repsol Trade statement Q4

• UK, Rightmove Monthly Home Price Index

Tuesday

• Germany, Zew Financial Market Survey Expectations

• Opec Monthly Oil Market Report

• UK, labor market statistics plus monthly insolvency data

• Results: BNY Mellon Q4, Karl Schwab Q4, Goldman Sachs Q4

Wednesday

• BHP billion operational review for the six months ended December 31, 2021

• Burberry Trading update Q3

• Canada Monthly CPI Data plus Wholesale Figures

• Germany, final CPI data

• Monthly oil market report from the International Energy Agency

• Richemont Trading update Q3

• UK, CPI and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures.

• USA, new housing figures

• Results: Alcoa Q4, ASML Q4, Bank of America Q4, MorganStanley Q4, Procter & Gamble Q2

Thursday

• Deliveroo Trading update Q4

• EU, release of minutes of December monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council and monthly inflation figures

• France, business confidence data

• Germany monthly PPI for industrial products

• Japan CPI data

• UK, Monthly Housing Market Survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

• US, National Association of Realtors Monthly Home Sales Data plus Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook

• Results: Netflix Q4, Union Pacific Q4

Friday

• Canada, Monthly Retail Sales

• EU, consumer confidence flash figures

• Japan, The Bank of Japan releases minutes of its December policy meeting

• UK, Monthly Retail Sales plus Quarterly CBI Business Climate Survey

• Results: Schlumberger Q4

world events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones from this week.

Monday

• Australia, the first Grand Slam tournament of the tennis year, the Australian Open, begins in Melbourne

• EU, election to succeed David Sassoli, President of the European Parliament who died on January 10th, and Ecofin Council meeting of Economy and Finance Ministers

• France, the 90th Monte Carlo Rally opens at its home base in Monaco

• USA, Martin Luther King Day

Tuesday

• EU Ecofin Council of Economics and Finance Ministers meets in Brussels

• UK, Winnie the Pooh Day, celebrates the birthday of its author AA Milne

Wednesday

• Barbados general election called as country became a republic in late 2021

• EU, Emmanuel Macron addresses the European Parliament in Strasbourg as France takes over the revolving presidency of the Council of the European Union

• UK Amazon will stop accepting UK-issued Visa credit cards

Thursday

• The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announces the position of the minute hand on the doomsday clock, which records the perceived threat of a global apocalypse

• US, Sundance Film Festival begins both online and physically in Park City, Utah

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

• Northern Cyprus, General Elections

• Haiti, first round of presidential elections