There may be nonetheless rather a lot we don’t know concerning the Chinese language spy balloon and the three different objects the U.S. navy shot out of the sky in latest days.

U.S. officers haven’t defined what sort of info the spy balloon was attempting to acquire. They’ve revealed little concerning the different objects, although they did acknowledge yesterday that the three objects weren’t sending out communication alerts. However we’ve but to be taught what these objects had been or what they had been for.

China’s function is one other unanswered query. The U.S. has drawn a transparent hyperlink between China and the spy balloon, although not with the opposite three objects. It’s not clear whether or not the balloon was an indication that China is getting extra aggressive, or if the U.S. is just now detecting a type of surveillance China has been doing for a very long time.

The shortage of solutions has prompted a lot hypothesis. A few of it’s foolish, together with jokes about aliens and U.F.O.s. A lot of it’s severe, a few potential second Chilly Struggle, this time between the U.S. and China.

At the moment’s e-newsletter will break by means of the hypothesis and memes to clarify what we all know, and don’t, about these flying objects and the implications of escalating tensions between the world’s two greatest powers.

What we all know

On three straight days beginning Friday, the U.S. detected and shot down unidentified flying objects — first round Alaska, then over Canada and lastly over Lake Huron. They had been low sufficient to pose a risk to civilian plane, John Kirby, a White Home spokesman, stated yesterday. (Right here’s a timeline of the occasions.)

None made it as far into the U.S. as the sooner Chinese language spy balloon, which drifted throughout the continental U.S. earlier than the navy shot it down on Feb. 4 close to the coast of South Carolina.

China continues to insist that the balloon was a civilian climate analysis airship that was blown astray. U.S. officers have launched extra particulars about what they are saying is a Chinese language spy program that has despatched high-altitude balloons over greater than 40 nations for years.

What we don’t know

There may be nonetheless rather a lot that we don’t know concerning the three most up-to-date objects: What had been they? The place did they arrive from? What had been they for? These primary questions have prompted others:

Is the U.S. now discovering objects which were there all alongside? Possibly. “One of many causes that we predict we’re seeing extra is as a result of we’re in search of extra,” Kirby stated. The U.S. has made new investments in its detection capabilities and tweaked present methods to be extra delicate, partly in response to the Chinese language spy balloon. These methods may very well be choosing up issues which have lengthy populated the sky, together with extra benign objects like airborne trash. (1000’s of balloons are floating above the Earth at any given second, one skilled stated.)

Are the objects meant to spy on the U.S.? They may very well be, however officers haven’t confirmed or denied that. America’s adversaries, like China or Russia, is also testing what they’ll fly over the U.S. with out officers’ noticing.

Is it aliens? “There is no such thing as a indication of aliens or extraterrestrial exercise with these latest takedowns,” the White Home press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, stated yesterday.

Is the U.S. utilizing related surveillance expertise over China? American officers denied China’s allegations that the U.S. is flying high-altitude balloons over Chinese language airspace. That response leaves open the chance that the U.S. is utilizing balloons over disputed territory or that it surveils China by means of different means, similar to planes and satellites, because it has prior to now.

The broader context

Relations between the U.S. and China had deteriorated lately because the Trump and Biden administrations took a extra aggressive tone than earlier administrations and imposed commerce restrictions. However officers from each nations had not too long ago began to work to fix ties.

The balloon episode may damage these efforts. “Because the U.S. has made clear it’s not going to simply let this fade, the Chinese language response has gotten extra aggressive,” stated my colleague Vivian Wang, who covers China.

In that sense, the flying objects are a case research for a way tensions between the U.S. and China can quickly escalate. Many analysts fear that present strains between the 2 nations, like these over the standing of Taiwan and China’s territorial claims over close by waters, may shortly rework right into a lethal battle.

“That may very well be Taiwan. It may very well be the South China Sea. It may very well be an unplanned navy encounter within the sea or air,” stated my colleague Chris Buckley, who additionally covers China. “As we see with balloons — who predicted a balloon mini-crisis? — the potential permutations are countless.”

There may be one other facet to this, too: the danger of de-escalating too far. For years, some analysts have argued that the U.S. has performed too little to include China. In its response to the balloon, the Biden administration could also be attempting to indicate China that the U.S. is taking a extra forceful strategy than it has prior to now.

Commentary

• The U.S. is overreacting to pretty typical spying, Emma Ashford argues in International Coverage. Matthew Kroenig thinks the U.S. was proper to reply forcefully.

• The U.S. and China have few offramps for de-escalating a disaster, and the subsequent one may very well be a lot tougher to defuse, Fareed Zakaria writes in The Washington Put up.

• To restrict hypothesis concerning the different objects the U.S. shot down, President Biden ought to share what he is aware of, Michael Brendan Dougherty writes in Nationwide Overview.

• “After the spy balloon, the U.S. began altering the way it seemed within the skies,” Julian Barnes, The Instances’s nationwide safety reporter, stated on right now’s episode of The Each day.

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