Home Economy 2:00PM Water Cooler 2/20/2023 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 2/20/2023 | bare capitalism

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Hen Music of the Day

Eurasian Jackdaw, Heidebos, Moerbeke, Oost-Vlaanderen Vlaamse Gewest, Belgium.

* * *

Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the biggest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to assume; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels.” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

Theatre, and unhealthy theatre at that:

Does anyone assume that the Russian’s couldn’t have rained actual missiles on Kiev in the event that they wished to?

Squeeeeeeee!

Most likely the a part of Scranton Joe’s coronary heart that’s questioning what Huge Z has on Hunter.

2024

Apophasis!

“The DeSantis they know” [Washington Examiner]. Photograph: DeSantis hugging a supporter. “DeSantis is chatting along with his constituents alongside a strolling path in his hometown when Kimberly Baldwin catches sight of him standing on a pathway in an area park and is moved to tears when DeSantis stops speaking midsentence to speak along with her. ‘Hello, Kimberly. How are you doing?’ ‘Wonderful, now that I’ve met you,’ Baldwin says. The 2 speak about her return to their mutual hometown of Dunedin after residing in Miami. Her father, she says, is the deputy sheriff in close by Land O’ Lakes, and he or she not too long ago determined to return to school. Then she timidly asks for a hug. DeSantis doesn’t hesitate, and Baldwin lists the 2 issues she admires most about his governing: his choice to ‘act with conviction’ when reopening the state in the course of the pandemic and his decisiveness in response final September to Hurricane Ian, one of many deadliest and most damaging storms to hit Florida in almost 100 years. The encounter was one of many dozens with constituents and vacationers amused to start their Thursday morning randomly operating into the governor.” • Hmm.

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, plainly persons are really studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I should try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Occasion (“the Democrat Occasion is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Occasion is, in actual fact, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Occasion is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Occasion didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working components of the Occasion reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Occasion (ka-ching, however not completely) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Observe, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

I dunno. What’s in it for me?

Possibly we’ve got some junk mail professionals within the readership who can touch upon this. Presumably Mothership Methods retains pumping out this bilge as a result of it will get the outcomes they need; however why on earth does it work?

Our Famously Free Press

“The Nation Names New Columnists Spencer Ackerman, Adolph Reed Jr., and Jane McAlevey” [The Nation]. • Reed, glorious.

Realignment and Legitimacy

No, it’s not age:

They’re all like this, in each events.

“Organizing and Covid-19 (Half 1) (02/16/23)” (podcast) [Death Panel]. “On this two-part collection, we converse to some folks engaged in organizing and political schooling initiatives about their experiences attempting to include covid protections into their present organizing work, wins and losses they’ve encountered, and why it’s so necessary for the left to take covid significantly, at the same time as the general public well being emergency involves a detailed.” • The general public well being emergency coming to a detailed isn’t, in fact, the identical because the pandemic coming to a detailed. Completely gorgeous that we’ve got a deadly airborne pathogen that disproportionately impacts these non-labor aristocrats who can not work at home — particularly in service industries — and “the left” does nothing about it. It’s not even a problem. That goes for nationwide union management in addition to electeds, NGOs, and so forth.

#COVID19

Appears to be like like “leveling off to a excessive plateau” throughout the board. (I nonetheless assume “One thing Terrible” is coming, nevertheless. I imply, apart from what we already find out about.) Keep secure on the market!

• Readers, because the nationwide information techniques in the US are being vandalized, let’s begin accumulating hyperlinks to state information, too. If readers would ship me hyperlinks (see Plant under) to their favourite State and native dashboards/wastewater websites, that will be nice. Canadians, too! Or depart a hyperlink in Feedback.

Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information).

Sources, United States (Native): CA (dashboard); CO (wastewater); CT (dashboard); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); MA (wastewater); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); SC (dashboard); TX (dashboard); VA (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Art_DogCT, CanCyn, ChiGal, Gumbo, hop2it, JB, Joe, John, JM (2), JW, Michael King, LaRuse, otisyves, Petal (5), RL, RM, Rod. (Readers, I’m not placing your deal with subsequent to your contribution as a result of I hope and count on the checklist can be lengthy, and I need it to be simple to scan. (In case you depart your hyperlink in feedback, I exploit your deal with. In case you ship it to me by way of e mail, I exploit your initials (within the absence of a deal with.)

• Extra like this, please! Whole: 1 6 11 18/50 (36%). Can anybody discover RI or VT? Maybe not all states have Covid sources….

* * *

Search for the Helpers

“Welcome to The John Snow Mission” [The John Snow Project]. “The world is coming into its fourth yr of residing with COVID-19, the illness brought on by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Practically everybody has had private expertise of catching the virus and many individuals live with the lingering results of sickness. Governments around the globe have deserted nationwide insurance policies to curb transmission and have left the administration of dangers to the person. “Study to stay with it” and “you do you” particular person accountability are the dominant mantras. This individualistic strategy to an airborne virus depends on folks being armed with information to grasp the dangers they face and the instruments that assist mitigate these dangers. Many governments initially responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by holding official briefings, speaking the dangers the illness poses and implementing emergency measures to attenuate transmission. Three years on the pandemic remains to be with us however official communication and consequent media protection has been lowered in order that many individuals have resumed their 2019 existence, largely oblivious to the continued dangers posed by COVID-19. This info hole comes simply because the scientific and medical group is studying an increasing number of concerning the detrimental long-term results of SARS-CoV-2 infections. The John Snow Mission was began by people who grew involved by the dearth of consideration being given to a virus that has killed tens of tens of millions, and even after the deployment of vaccines and widespread convalescence, remains to be killing tens of hundreds of individuals around the globe each week and debilitating many extra. The target of the John Snow Mission is to supply simply digestible info for most of the people and policymakers to assist them perceive the dangers posed by the illness and tips on how to greatest handle these dangers.” • Little recognized reality: After the cholera epidemic died down, <em>The authorities changed the pump deal with.

Pushback (1):

Pushback (2):

I don’t perceive the mentality that claims: “Everyone will get Covid, so why not get it over with?” I say, “Why not postpone so long as doable?” Why not break as many chains of transmission as you possibly can?

* * *

“Covid Meetups” [COVID MEETUPS (JM)]. “A free service to seek out people, households and native companies/providers who take COVID precautions in your space.” • I performed round with it some. It appears to be Fb-driven, sadly, however you should use the Listing with out logging in. I get rational hits from the U.S., however not from London, UK, FWIW.

Covid Is Airborne

“Opinion: Treating youngsters as invulnerable is treating them as disposable” [Calgary Herald]. “The options for safeguarding youngsters may be gleaned from behaviours of rich elites, and so they contain layering protections to create clear indoor air. The current World Financial Discussion board in Davos used the next security techniques: necessary each day PCR testing with ID-badge entry linked to outcomes, new ‘state-of-the-art air flow techniques‘, HEPA purifiers all over the place, varied ranges of masking and, it appeared, virus-killing UV lighting techniques. Our kids deserve these protections, of their faculties and elsewhere. These measures, together with boosters, are in actual fact the one at present present methods of decreasing the general public well being want for common indoor masking. By treating youngsters as invulnerable we are literally treating them as disposable. However they’re the whole lot — to our lives and to our future. Their long-term well being is in danger and we have to defend them.”

A historical past lesson:

Another reason to treat agriculture as one large mistake?

If you will get your Corsi-Rosenthal Field within the Dean’s Workplace (!!), you’ve bought it made:

An efficient technique for these of you in academe….

College meeting line for Corsi-Rosenthal packing containers with laptop followers from kits:

I by no means would have thought laptop followers could be so highly effective. I assume we’ve got crypto, or gaming, to thank?

Maskstravaganza

Nuts:

Can readers affirm that certainly some airways have such a coverage? Insurance policies appear to differ. To me, airline peanuts are not any nice loss, however the distinction in the best way we deal with allergens vs. pathogens is fairly gorgeous.

Vogue:

Extra like this, please.

Sequelae

“Acute and postacute sequelae related to SARS-CoV-2 reinfection” [Nature]. We ran this when if first appeared. From the Summary: “Right here we used the US Division of Veterans Affairs’ nationwide healthcare database to construct a cohort of people with one SARS-CoV-2 an infection (n = 443,588), reinfection (two or extra infections, n = 40,947) and a noninfected management (n = 5,334,729)…. In comparison with noninfected controls, cumulative dangers and burdens of repeat an infection elevated in response to the variety of infections. Limitations included a cohort of largely white males. The proof reveals that reinfection additional will increase dangers of demise, hospitalization and sequelae in a number of organ techniques within the acute and postacute section. Decreasing total burden of demise and illness on account of SARS-CoV-2 would require methods for reinfection prevention.” • “Largely white males” appears to have led to some agita:

The statistics within the paper are above my paygrade; maybe somebody knowledgeable will remark. That mentioned, Tufecki was nice on aerosols and air flow. Then she joined the New York Instances, and altered her beat to immunology and infectious illnesses, the place for my part she’s a bit out of her depth; or it’s simply that when she joined the Instances, she went rancid, as so many do. A disgrace. As for instance (ignore intermediate vitriol):

See “Dengue Fever: A repeat an infection is extra harmful than the primary.” There is no such thing as a “in fact” about it.

Science Is Popping

“”Frequent Names” for Notable SARS-CoV-2 Variants: Proposal for a Clear and Constant Nicknaming Course of to Support Communication” [World Health Network]. Doing WHO’s job: “Efforts to speak concerning the evolution, range, and significance of SARS-CoV-2 variants has change into more and more difficult because the variety of variants has expanded dramatically, particularly since mid-2022. Formal naming techniques which are at present in place — specifically Greek letters assigned by the World Well being Group (WHO), technical Phylogenetic Project of Named World Outbreak (PANGO) labels, and Nextstrain clades — don’t present choices for communication that’s each sufficiently excessive decision simply accessible exterior of technical discussions. Right here, we summarize the premise of present nomenclature techniques and suggest a complementary possibility based mostly on casual “frequent names” or “nicknames” that can be utilized normally scientific communication about variants…. For the revised system proposed right here, it’s urged that names be drawn from astronomy (constellations, stars, moons, asteroids, exoplanets). The checklist of doable names ought to be filtered to be according to the guiding rules and be compiled and sorted right into a usable sequence (e.g., alternating first letters).” • Commentary:

That is the one instance I can discover. Naming conventions are extraordinarily laborious. It’s additionally laborious to be a naming authority (absent funding and/or licensing). This looks as if a well-thought-out proposal. I hope it will get traction.

Elite Malfeasance

“Mommy, why was Kamala attempting to contaminate me?”

“Doesn’t she care about folks like us?”

Media Protection

“Right here’s why you must make a behavior of getting extra enjoyable” [National Public Radio]. “A whole lot of us are nonetheless recovering from delinquent habits fashioned within the pandemic.” • “Anti-social” like… selecting to not infect different folks with an airborne pathogen whose neurological and vascular sequelae are cumulative? What’s flawed with these folks?

* * *

Case Knowledge

NOT UPDATED BioBot wastewater information from February 16:

For now, I’m going to make use of this nationwide wastewater information as one of the best proxy for case information (ignoring the scientific case information portion of this chart, which for my part “goes unhealthy” after March 2022, for causes as but unexplained). Not less than we will spot developments, and evaluate present ranges to equal previous ranges.

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s take a look at positivity tracker, printed February 20:

-0.5%. Nonetheless on the excessive plateau, equal to earlier peaks.

Deaths

Dying fee (Our World in Knowledge):

Whole: 1,142,595 – 1,141,862 = 733 (733 * 365 = 267,545 deaths per yr, at present’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may must determine that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission completed” for this specific tranche of demise and illness). Nicely, the entire wasn’t 192 once more. Not that I really feel higher about it.

It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, each day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, in contrast to the whole lot else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job. (Although CDC could also be jiggering the numbers quickly. Decrease, naturally.)

Lambert right here: Lowest stage in awhile. Though we’ve seen this earlier than.

Stats Watch

There are not any official statistics of curiosity at present.

* * *

The Bezzle: “Meta to check month-to-month subscription service priced at $11.99” [Reuters]. “Meta Platforms on Sunday introduced that it’s testing a month-to-month subscription service, known as Meta Verified, which is able to let customers confirm their accounts utilizing a authorities ID and get a blue badge, because it appears to assist content material creators develop and construct communities. The subscription bundle for Instagram and Fb, to be launched later this week, additionally contains additional safety towards impersonation and can be priced beginning at $11.99 per 30 days on the internet or $14.99 a month on Apple’s iOS system and Android.” • Giving your authorities ID to Faceborg seems like a fully nice concept (and I additionally thought that Fb was fairly robust on you utilizing your actual identification anyhow). Additionally, “creators.” How I hate that phrase. It’s like “leaders”: gormless mush.

The Bezzle: “1 large factor: When a financial savings account may be very dangerous” [Felix Salmon, Axios]. “Compound Banc pays an eye-popping 7% on deposits — or a minimum of issues that appear and feel quite a bit like deposits. However it’s not a financial institution, and the deposits — technically, they’re dangerous bonds — aren’t insured by the FDIC or anyone else. The product is aimed toward very small traders: The minimal funding is simply $10. Individuals on the lookout for improbably excessive rates of interest on their cash have realized the laborious method to keep away from crypto. That’s created a gap for dollar-denominated merchandise benefiting from varied regulatory loopholes — and of the truth that Individuals are more and more snug handing over their cash to digital establishments. Compound Banc’s product is marketed as a high-yield digital account. Financial savings begin compounding instantly at a 7% APY (annual proportion yield); savers can withdraw their cash at any time with none charges or penalties. ‘No if and or buts about it,’ says the homepage. Compound Banc is neither a financial institution nor a brokerage, and its financial savings bonds, in case you learn its SEC filings, are characterised by “a excessive diploma of threat.” Accounts at Compound Banc aren’t insured by the FDIC, the SIPC, or every other authorities regulator. ‘,’ notes Compound on web page 7 of its providing round.” Eesh. Preying on absolutely the weakest. And: “The truth that Compound Banc has managed to go stay with none actual regulatory oversight — they are saying they’ve already issued some $1.5 million in bonds — demonstrates the bounds of America’s present regulatory infrastructure.” • Dry. Very dry.

* * *

In the present day’s Worry & Greed Index: 66 Greed (earlier shut: 69 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 69 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Feb 17 at 12:40 PM ET.

Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. Report Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 187. (Do not forget that bringing on the Rapture is good.) NOTE on #42 Plagues: “The coronavirus pandemic has maxed out this class.” Extra sincere than most!

Feral Hog Watch

“Inhabitants Explosion of Canadian “Tremendous Pigs” Might Unfold Into the Northern U.S.” [Field and Stream (semper loquitur)]. “The U.S. might quickly have a brand new wild pig drawback. Till now, the invasive species has largely proliferated in heat locations just like the southeast, Texas, and California. However in recent times, invasive pigs have began thriving in Canada and should unfold into North Dakota, Montana, Michigan, and Minnesota…. In accordance with [Dr. Ryan Brook, who leads the University of Saskatchewan’s Canadian Wild Pig Research Project], the hybridization resulted in greater ‘tremendous pigs’ that would survive in chilly climates. ‘For surviving in chilly winters, one of many guidelines of ecology is: the larger the higher,’ he says. ‘Bigger physique animals survive the chilly higher and have higher replica in these circumstances.’” • My gawd. Feral Hogs have a Canadian variant. What would WHO title it, I’m wondering?

E-book Nook

The stupidest timeline:

Observe that in erasing Kipling — I’d by no means erase Kipling, though I’d slap him round just a little bit — these nitwit Bowdlerizers additionally erased your entire largely non-white and colonized subcontinent of India and changed it with 35% white California, a colonizer’s state inside a colonizer nation. How come no person within the cancel brigade is coming after these folks? Oh, wait. California’s Blue. In order that’s alright then.

And as a palate cleanser, an extended thread about tips on how to learn Finnegan’s Wake:

That McHugh guide sounds fascinating. I’m not sure I’d learn all of it — the account recommends one web page a day, taking two years to complete the work — however I really like superbly printed books with dense scholarly equipment. (If anyone needs to have a go at Ulyssess, I like to recommend Hugh Kenner‘s Ulysses for a high quality shut studying.)

L’Affaire Joffrey Epstein

“Isn’t Anybody Curious” [Eschaton]. “Personally I can get a bit drawn to conspiracy theories not due to the solutions, which are sometimes bullshit, however due to the questions. Or extra particularly, that others who ought to be asking the questions aren’t. The questions may be bullshit, too, in that typically they’ve really been requested and answered. However typically not! Like there’s a exceptional lack of curiosity about Epstein’s consumer checklist! Not that happening cable TV and speculating about who is likely to be a pedo could be productive, however doesn’t actually seem to be anybody tried very laborious to determine it out!” • The opposite checklist operating round is the checklist of individuals SBF gave cash to. There doesn’t appear to be a lot curiousity about that both. That is very Bourdeusian: Lists which which exist, however whose gadgets can solely be witnessed by a (self-)appointed few.

“Jeffrey Epstein’s lengthy shadow falls on JPMorgan and Barclays as soon as extra” [Financial Times]. “The lawsuit alleges that [former Barclays CEO Jes] Staley used his work e mail to change 1,200 emails with Epstein and acquired what the lawsuit describes as ‘pictures of younger girls in seductive poses’ from the financier. It additionally alleges Epstein used JPMorgan accounts to pay greater than $1mn to a minimum of 20 victims of sexual crime. In 2009, Staley wrote to Epstein of their ‘profound’ friendship and ‘heartfelt hug.’ A yr later he emailed: ‘Say hello to Snow White.’ When Epstein responded: “[W]hat character would you want subsequent?’ Staley replied, ‘Magnificence and the Beast.’” • Good folks. Once more, as Atrios asks, the place’s Epstein’s consumer checklist?

Class Warfare

Arduous-core stuff. 65 books in a month. Nonetheless:

Can’t say a lot for the pattern measurement. Nonetheless, the distribution throughout states is fascinating.

No one mentioned you couldn’t have your personal algo:

Information of the Wired

I’m not but feeling wired.

* * *

Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of vegetation. Greens are high quality! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From CM:

CM writes: “Taken on the east coast of Lake Superior.” Does it glow in the dead of night?

* * *

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